There's a nice tornado-warned supercell heading straight towards Austin right now. Rotation was quite intense about 15 minutes ago, with the supercell looking very HPish with a kidney-bean shape. The EWX radar has been showing either the real warm front or a strong outflow boundary extending WSW/ENE between Austin and San Antonio. Small showers and thunderstorms have been developing along this boundary for much of the afternoon, riding the low-level flow to the north-northwest. Over the last 30 mins, it appears as though this boundary has been lifting slowly northward, and it may actually make it to Austin as the supercell approaches. There isn't a whole lot in the way of instability on the north side of that front (best CAPE south of the front), but obviously enough to support that intense supercell. In addition, RUC mesoanalysis is indcating strong low-level shear with easterly sfc winds, southeasterly 850mb flow, and southwesterly 500mb flow. No 18z sounding out of DRT, unfortunately. Given the strength of the low-level shear, low LCLs, and proximity to the front, that supercell may produce a tornado as it approaches Austin. There are, however, developing storms heading northward towards Austin, so inter-storm interaction may disrupt the rotation before it has time to produce something in Austin. A left-ward jog may allow it to miss Austin to the north, as well. The supercell has been moving just north of due east for a while now...
