4/18/04 FCST: N PLAINS & MIDWEST

[J.B. Dixon]

After pouring over updates......in a perfect world, I would be sitting in Marshall, MN waiting for initiation. Instead, like Mike, I'll be playing along the cold front. Looks like the moisture is on it's way. Although probably weak, I think there's a shot at a tornado on an isolated cell along the CF. There's shear, but not enough to go crazy about. It's the best shot we've had to come through here this year. See you in Sioux City!!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Shane, I don't think the dryline should be completely discounted from Kansas possibly down to the panhandle. I was thinking more along the lines of NC Kansas (where I'm scared there might be that rogue supe pop up while I'm up in Iowa) ... but we've all seen setups like this in the past that end up producing sporadically all the way down the pike. I wouldn't put anything completely out of the realm of possibility. As for choosing whether to see a race or chase - that's one of those wonderful decisions we all get to make a million times this time of year. I was supposed to be having dinner with friends tonight - have already called and cancelled. hehe

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Originally posted by rdewey
Central OK/OUN - http://www.yourimagehost.com/is.php?i=4114...entral_oun.jpeg

All weekend long these forecast soundings have been totally and completely out to lunch, but I bet if you do a survey of the threads for each of the three forecast periods, you'll find three times as many URLs posted for forecast soundings than the real thing. That ETA soundings for OUN bears no resemeblence to reality as of this morning:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oun.gif

 

[Mike Peregrine]

It's interesting that the OUN sounding you posted Amos cuts off moisture at 800mb, while the OAX sounding shows decent saturation there.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif

Some convergence in Omaha already this morning? - Wonder where it's coming from exactly, because it doesn't appear to be from the south. Springfield's sounding even looks worse than OUN ...

 

[Robert Dewey]

I decided to make a quick outlook graphic... http://www.yourimagehost.com/is.php?i=4119...img=outlook.gif

The reason I didn't extend the risk further southwest is because there is some really dry air and weak instability, and convergence is on the weaker side...Further north into MN/IA/WI (western)...While there is still a decent CAP, strong and persistant convergence later today, combined with CAPES of around 2000J/kg, and excellent shear will present the risk for severe thunderstorm development. Looking at forecast soundings, supercells appear probable on the western side of the "35%" area...With the potential for a few tornadoes. Supercells should consolidate into a line or lines...With bow echos likely in western WI (HP supercell ingredients and bow echo ingredients overlap). Expect main storm initiation around 21Z-00Z.

I put an "X" on my "target" area...Just to see how it verifies later today/tonight.

Robert

 

[Chris Hayes]

PDS Tornado watch has been issued for central minnesota. I'm worried about the leftover grunge over the area though. Warming up nicely into the 70s and 80s though. As of right now I'll target Minneapolis but no further north than 30-40 miles. In the 60s well north of Minneapolis. Still got time though. The chase is on

Too bad it's a virtural chase

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Storms firing up in NE!!

Hey,

While I'm waiting for a NOW 04/18/04 NE thread to be set up, check out the storms firing up near Mullen, NE:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37c...r/si.klnx.shtml

Looks like central and eastern NE could be in for a stormy day!!

Happy Chasing :blob7: LJK.