• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

4-16-06 TN and Ohio valleys

Justin Bailey

Justin Bailey

EF2
Joined
Apr 28, 2005
Messages
182
Location
Murfreesboro, TN
i know the spc does not currently have a slight risk out for the TN valley. but looking at the 12z NAM and this forcast sounding for nashville, TN is really making me think twice. if that verifies TN could be in for another round of potentially life threatening, tornadic supercells.

EDIT: so i cant figure out how to link the web page. so here are just the basics. again this sounding is from nashville. i haven't had time to look at any of the other nearby soundings yet.
LI's: -5.8
SWEAT: 348
CAPE: 2092 j/kg
CINH: -61.3 j/kg
LCL: 602.1 m
Lapse Rates: 6.9 C/km
SRH: 273.4
 
If you look at the sounding though you'll see a significant cap around 850mb, which is probably why models don't kick off any convection and SPC doesn't even have storms outlooked for that area. Could something pop? Sure. I don't see anything that would lead to a major (let alone minor) tornado event though.

I'm still focused on central IN/IL, but a lot is going to depend on leftover clouds tomorrow morning. But if the NAM low path is correct - might be some healthy tornado chances from SPI to HUF.
 
Initial Target area: Box of Springfield-Litchfield-Urbana-Effingham

Why: Surface low currently over E NE/W IA will continue to weaken and slide ESE thru tomorrow.
995-1000mb surface low will move from NE MO into W Central IL during the midday to afternoon.
NAM is overdoing surface moisture again, but 2000-2500 SBCAPE will still be likely across much of central IL by afternoon east of the low.

Other areas will likely see all types of severe, but the target area above is my favorite for the ridiculously flat terrain. The most significant weather of the day could likely be S IL/S IN/W KY during the early evening near and just after sundown if the cap can be broken in the area. But, due to the timing and the hilly terrain, I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.
 
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