4-16-06 TN and Ohio valleys

[Justin Bailey]

i know the spc does not currently have a slight risk out for the TN valley. but looking at the 12z NAM and this forcast sounding for nashville, TN is really making me think twice. if that verifies TN could be in for another round of potentially life threatening, tornadic supercells.

EDIT: so i cant figure out how to link the web page. so here are just the basics. again this sounding is from nashville. i haven't had time to look at any of the other nearby soundings yet.
LI's: -5.8
SWEAT: 348
CAPE: 2092 j/kg
CINH: -61.3 j/kg
LCL: 602.1 m
Lapse Rates: 6.9 C/km
SRH: 273.4

 

[rdale]

If you look at the sounding though you'll see a significant cap around 850mb, which is probably why models don't kick off any convection and SPC doesn't even have storms outlooked for that area. Could something pop? Sure. I don't see anything that would lead to a major (let alone minor) tornado event though.

I'm still focused on central IN/IL, but a lot is going to depend on leftover clouds tomorrow morning. But if the NAM low path is correct - might be some healthy tornado chances from SPI to HUF.

 

[Justin Bailey]

i knew there had to be something i was missing. Thank you. i see what you were talking about now.

 

[Matthew Havin]

Initial Target area: Box of Springfield-Litchfield-Urbana-Effingham

Why: Surface low currently over E NE/W IA will continue to weaken and slide ESE thru tomorrow.
995-1000mb surface low will move from NE MO into W Central IL during the midday to afternoon.
NAM is overdoing surface moisture again, but 2000-2500 SBCAPE will still be likely across much of central IL by afternoon east of the low.

Other areas will likely see all types of severe, but the target area above is my favorite for the ridiculously flat terrain. The most significant weather of the day could likely be S IL/S IN/W KY during the early evening near and just after sundown if the cap can be broken in the area. But, due to the timing and the hilly terrain, I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.