3/9/2009 FCST: OK,TX,AR,KS,MO

[Ilya Neyman]

Today is an interesting setup that may provide all of us with a valuable meteorological lesson.

Namely, what can happen when a subtropical jet, relatively warm mid-level temperatures and near saturation up the Skew-T exists with an otherwise impressive synoptic setup.

Even though CAPE has been forecast to be Modest (with a capital M) models have been persistent in assuming convection along a dryline in western OK for several runs now. In addition, last night's 4 km WRF raises eyebrows, modeling a broken line of supercells toward I-35 by evening.

Often-times a high shear, low cape scenario can tend to rip storms apart but not per the WRF.

Also plenty of clouds socked in across the Plains yet temperatures are already hitting 70 as far north as I-44 west of Norman and 60 degree dewpoints coming up from the Red River, with 3-hr dewpoint changes of 20 degrees dotting the map as of 10:35AM.

Meanwhile, an impressive elevated storm (supercell?) is rolling along the north side of I-40, passing around Elk City. This looks to be a result of impressive moisture surge going on above the surface with LLJ, combined with jet energy and upper shortwave impulses. It's sustaining pretty good.

All in all today is quite interesting for the above reasons. My preliminary target is probably Weatherford, OK. If I go out that is, would like to position there by 2-3pm for road/time options. Anywhere from Altus on up to Alva is a fair bet this afternoon.

Good luck to all going out there and stay safe!

 

[Chris C Sanner]

We are getting some sun coming through the clouds here in Norman and it looks like that is something going on in a few places around the area this morning. Hand analysis shows two areas I'm particularly favoring in opposite corners of Oklahoma (NW and SW). Right now it looks like the smart bet is to head out within the next hour and park it in Weatherford with decent options N and S. I'm thinking we will have a few tornadoes today, but it's going to be tough to see em.

If you have twitter, I will be tweeting through the day there (address below):

http://www.twitter.com/chrissnr

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Closely monitoring conditions here at the farm near Piedmont. I will likely give it a go and chase today albeit the negatives with marginal shear (as per the mesoanalysis site on SPC). Cape values are continuing to rise modestly with a fair amount of sun is getting through especially south of OKC where the latest SAT image indicates bubbling Cu. The initial wave that sparked the convection earlier to my west and north now passing PNC has created some subsidence in its wake. As the next wave moves in by about 23Z, and with the advancing dry line.. I'm thinking that area's as close as Binger, Geary, Watonga may see some scattered convection by late afternoon. I'll likely head in that direction within the next couple of hours. I don't expect any major outbreak by no means but a tornado or two is possible. I would think with the 500mb. temps only being around -12 to -15C, mid level lapse rates like that would not be conducive to large hail, most hail sizes should stay below 1.5".

Still, it's March, the season has begun, and I'm all about seeing something interesting even if its a picturesque storm on the wide open spaces.

Cell ph: 405-226-2996