3/9/07 NOW: OK / MO / AR / TX

[Jeff Snyder]

Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a shortwave trough and associated sfc dryline / front across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of se KS and sw MO. Temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s are supporting CAPE values of >1000 j/kg over parts of the area, which is currently covered by two blue boxes. Flow at all levels is weak in comparison to prior events, but 30-35kts deep-layer shear may support intermittent supercell structures this afternoon. Current radar imagery shows numerous cells developing across eastern Oklahoma, with most being of the pulse and/or multicellular type. There is one interesting supercell east of McAlester, moving eastward, with moderate cyclonic rotation on 0.5 and 1.5 degree velocity imagery from INX. Supercell composite index values are in the 2-4 range across primarily southeastern Oklahoma, indicative of a marginal supercell threat. Equally marginal low-level low should keep tornado potential to a minimum, but stranger things have happened. Large hail appears to be the primary threat, particularly with any storms whose updrafts can persistently rotate.

EDIT: That cell appears to be pulsing down now, with reflectivity values decreasing from a max ~65 dbz a minute ago.

 

[HAltschule]

Indeed, these storms are pulsing quite a bit. However, the supercell of Latimer County, OK has some moderate to strong rotation in all layers. I'm sure this will be a wicked hail producer but may also drop an isolated tornado given the gate 2 gate shear it is exhibiting. That said, I like the cells closer to Ft. Smith, AR for a more sustained svr threat.

EDIT: Even that strong shear just pulsed down.

 

[HAltschule]

The Latimer County storm is now Tornado Warned...even though I do not see nearly as much or sufficient rotation on radar. Perhaps there were some ground reports.

 

[Ray Walker]

I live in Ada Oklahoma and I can see the storms off to my east and the towers look strong, very hard and classical of supercell structure.

 

[HAltschule]

Should be a good light show for you off to the east!! It also looks like they should have reissued the Tornado Warning since the storm is showing a nice hook and very good g2g shear now.