Jeff Snyder
EF5
Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a shortwave trough and associated sfc dryline / front across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of se KS and sw MO. Temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s are supporting CAPE values of >1000 j/kg over parts of the area, which is currently covered by two blue boxes. Flow at all levels is weak in comparison to prior events, but 30-35kts deep-layer shear may support intermittent supercell structures this afternoon. Current radar imagery shows numerous cells developing across eastern Oklahoma, with most being of the pulse and/or multicellular type. There is one interesting supercell east of McAlester, moving eastward, with moderate cyclonic rotation on 0.5 and 1.5 degree velocity imagery from INX. Supercell composite index values are in the 2-4 range across primarily southeastern Oklahoma, indicative of a marginal supercell threat. Equally marginal low-level low should keep tornado potential to a minimum, but stranger things have happened. Large hail appears to be the primary threat, particularly with any storms whose updrafts can persistently rotate.
EDIT: That cell appears to be pulsing down now, with reflectivity values decreasing from a max ~65 dbz a minute ago.
EDIT: That cell appears to be pulsing down now, with reflectivity values decreasing from a max ~65 dbz a minute ago.