3/6 - 3/7 FCST (Winter Storm): OK, TX, AR

[Dave Holder]

What I don't understand is why OUN went nuts after seeing one model run of the GFS and NAM. Perhaps they need to begin checking for run-to-run consistency before going with the winter storm warnings.

I also find it funny how I've been living here in Norman for almost 4 years now, and I think that the Dallas metro has now seen more snow than my 4 years combined. Go figure...

Of course I've never seen a tornado in this state either!

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Snowfall up to eight inches was pretty common around Denton. A friend who lives north of Lake Ray Roberts measured a foot in his front yard by 5:00 PM. I drove around the city and took some photos.

 

[David Wagener]

There is definitely something to be said on how OUN, and other offices, handle Winter situations in Oklahoma versus elsewhere. I believe the use of the stronger worded winter advisories get overused way to much, especially in a forecast that has so many questions. Eventually people will start ignoring the winter headlines as they continue to go unverified.

I've been in OK for about 10 years now, after growing up in Ohio...which are two totally different animals when it comes to winter weather, but not without their problems. On the west end of Lake Erie snowfall forecasts are tricky because if the lake is too warm then it isn't shocking to see rain or rarely a reverse lake effect snow machine in action. For Oklahoma so far which these snow storms it comes down to simple moisture availability it seems. Looking at radar it should have been snow in OKC, but everything was evaporating about 1000' up or so.

The situation just needs to be handled better with headlines. Don't get all excited. If the setup has a ton of questions, go with the watch until you know for sure its going to happen. This is just like the snow and blowling snow advisories last week - umm why? It just seems when it comes to winter weather, OUN is still off by a few beats - or they are just bored and hoping Spring gets going soon.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

What I don't understand is why OUN went nuts after seeing one model run of the GFS and NAM. Perhaps they need to begin checking for run-to-run consistency before going with the winter storm warnings.

I also find it funny how I've been living here in Norman for almost 4 years now, and I think that the Dallas metro has now seen more snow than my 4 years combined. Go figure...

Of course I've never seen a tornado in this state either!

While this probably shouldn't be in a FCST thread, I'll post it here anyways as a reponse to your post.

The 06Z run on 5 March of both the NAM and the GFS jumped futher north and painted large QPF over central OK. Then 12Z runs on the same day of both models shifted slightly further south and east, but still had considerable QPF in central OK. The 18Z looked a little less ominous, however it still had hints of a winter weather event. (However, by 00Z the trend south and east was clearly evident.)

In my opinion, the real issue here is not the issuance of winter weather headlines (if this vent had verified, OUN would be reamed for not issuing), but the fact they went from no snow to 4-8 inches of snow (Winter Storm Warning) in a span of 6 hours. A watch would have been the prudent route - ironically, the places where the watch WAS initially issued are the places that actually saw the snow.

With this said, I'm not trying to criticize OUN. The fact of the matter remains that winter weather forecasting is one of the hardest things to do in all of meteorology. Imagine having to know the correct CAPE to within 1 J/kg...

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

OK I wasnt going to say anything due to potential conflicts of interest but at this point, esp after Patricks' post, I will say that one fly in ointment that was clearly evident from the get go was the extremely dry air at the low levels. Models were (and I paraphrase from OUN discussion that Wed) attempting to overwhelm the dry air rapidly. But like Patrick said, a Winter Storm Watch would have been more prudent.

 

[mark plate]

Yes the GFS and NAM were north, but the ECMWF and UKMET were not, and neither was the Canadian. Personally I trust the ECMWF and UKMET much more than the GFS or NAM when it comes to significant weather events. And if the ECMWF and UKMET both agree, then it's almost a sure thing they will be close even if the GFS and NAM both agree on something totally different. I have seen this many times, and have yet to see the GFS and NAM be right when they are in agreement and far different from both the ECMWF and UKMET. This storm chalks another one up to the ECMWF and UKMET.