Well, what looked like a relatively obvious target has been muddled by the latest model solutions. Earlier today, the relatively obvious, "took at glance at things" target looked to be just downstream of the triple point, near Buffalo and Gage OK in far northwestern Oklahoma (and adjacent areas of southern KS). The 00z NAM, however, appears to have gone a bit more towards the earlier GFS runs in showing rather significant capping along and immediately south of the stationary front / slowly advancing cold front, and it's maintaining strong CINH along the dryline. It appears as though it may be mixing out some of the low-level moisture up in that area, as the 00z GAG sounding shows a ~53-54F dewpoint with a rather stout cap in place. In addition, 850mb Q-vector forecasts from the NAM and GFS show Q-vector divergence from central and western KS southward into far northwestern OK and the northern TX panhandle. This is quite troublesome, since it directly indicates low-level subsidence in those areas. Earlier today, I was thinking that perhaps convection would develop in the dry air back in the TX panhandle (where CAPE was still >500 j/kg and CINH was nearly removed) and move out into the moist sector near 00z. I'm not sure it would survive given the CINH and weaker CAPE now forecast.
I'm becoming progressively more interested in an "ahead of the dryline" play in the open sector across the eastern sections of western Oklahoma and into central Oklahoma (including north-central OK), where the models indicate weak CINH collocated with the local instability axis (2500-3000 j/kg CAPE along and west of I35). Forecast soundings valid tomorrow evening (00z) at END, OKC, and LAW show almost no cap in place, along with a nicely-shaped hodograph (though it could be a bit longer). So, from purely an environmental standpoint, I'm quite intrigued with the area 80 mi N and 50 mi S of the area between OKC and CSM. However, as we are all familiar with, a supercell-favorable environment means nothing if convection does not develop in said environment. Interestingly, the 00z NAM does show spotty convective QPF in western OK at 00z, with more substantial 6hr precip accums from near LAW northward towards END in the 00z-06z timeframe. Though the GFS QPF doesn't match the NAM QPF, it does show light precip in southwestern OK in the 00z-06z timeframe. In addition, the GFS 700mb RH progs show >50% RH in western OK ahead of the dryline and front at 00z, which may indicate that the model is showing something in the way of convective initiation attempts.
FWIW, the NAM is also farther south with the cold front at 00z... For example, the 10C isotherm at 850mb from the 00z NAM valid tomorrow evening lies across the southern OK panhandle towards ICT and on towards Topeka. In contrast, the 00z GFS valid at the same time shows the same isotherm lying from near Garden City to Topeka, a considerable distance north of the NAM. Similarly, the GFS Td forecasts are higher in NW OK adjacent areas of KS as far as I can tell.
At any rate... I guess I'm slightly less optimistic about the NW OK play tomorrow, and I'm increasingly intrigued by the possibility of initiation in the open warm sector near Watonga and Hobart (and E) tomorrow. Though the environment may be better for daytime torns, I'm just not sure what would force the convection (i.e. not finding obvious sources of low-level convergence). I'd rather not try to rely on such subtle things as differential heating boundaries or HCRs, so I'm not sure what to think. The subsidence forecast at 700mb by the GFS in western OK at 00z does not make me jump with joy.
My primary target is still far northwestern OK (GAG?), but I'm becoming increasingly more open to an Enid to Watonga and Weatherford play in hopes of a supercell roaming the open warm sector... If only there were some sort of boundary apparent to act as a source for low-level convergence in central OK... If I don't see one on sfc maps tomorrow around noon, I'll likely head up the NW passage.
You guys know how that goes. Not positive at the moment if I will bite. This reminds me of the Greensburg day in that I saw something very strong at night, but chose not to leave and chase because it looked like it would be an after dark event. My target that day was close to Greensburg btw 
. If coming from the south (as I am) - I would possibly initially target SPS just to get close to the action, and reposition as necessary.. - plus that seems to be a thermodynamic gradient that will increase and move a bit further ne into OK later in the evening. I'm not so sure the triple point would go. I may be tempted to wait for the dryline if it decided to go. The NAM doesn't seem to really indicate if convection will break out along the dryline or the warm front that I see by 0z. First stronger indication is nearer 6z with the mid level wave passage.
