3/30/06 FCST: IA/NE southward to central TX/LA

[beau_gjerdingen]

Anyone got any first hand reports in the Nebraska area as to how deep the snow pack still is?

[/b]

A much more accurate source for snow depth and snow water equivelence is available from NOAA's NOHRSC, they have maps also showing the rate of snow melt and several other fields...

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

 

[Kurt Silvey]

... The one concern for the northern area is still the snow on the ground. After looking at the latest snow depth reports from

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/

it looks like there is still a lot of snow cover in Nebraska.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISus.gif

Anyone got any first hand reports in the Nebraska area as to how deep the snow pack still is? ...
[/b]

I can’t speak for central or out west, but in eastern NE the snow is gone. There are some exceptions IE: some shaded areas and drifts in ditches, ect. But with forecast highs today of 65 f, this should take care of things. We have not dropped below freezing for three nights now.

 

[Dan Robinson]

There is still a large snowpack evident on visible satellite in central and eastern NE north of I-80 into south-central SD . If anything the differential heating could create a potentially useful boundary.

 

[Chris Allington]

there is no snow remaining here in Omaha and points SE-ward but to the north and west of the area there are still areas with quite a bit of snow... i dont think that will last long with expected temps in the mid-60s both today and tomorrow... i have school tomorrow so im hoping things will hold until later but we will see what happens... with all that forcing and ascent ahead of the low and some possible moisture issues i think we will probably be dealing with multicell clusters or lines but an isolated tornado or two isnt out of the question...

 

[Lisa Post]

Out here in Central NE we do still have some snow on the ground, but it is mostly refined to ditches and shady areas. More and more has been melting every day and I believe it will be almost completely gone by Thursday.

 

[John Thurston]

Currently would like to target SW Iowa if the low stays North.

Unfortunately the armchair has struck again with chase partner calling it too cold and early for anything but MCS. If anyone would like to chase I need a partner for tomorrow – PM me by say 7pm tonight leaving from Detroit heading west. Like to see what happens with a 45% on day 2.

 

[Randy R Chamberlain]

Just passing through central Nebraska yesterday and yet this morning I can say looks like the heaviest snow fall that still exists in central Nebraska is between Kearney and Grand Island corridor.. this is just from the train tracks I noticed. From my estimate maybe 4 or inches is still on the ground but Mike like said.. with southerly winds snow should melt pretty fast..

Randy

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Just passing through central Nebraska yesterday and yet this morning I can say looks like the heaviest snow fall that still exists in central Nebraska is between Kearney and Grand Island corridor.. this is just from the train tracks I noticed. From my estimate maybe 4 or inches is still on the ground but Mike like said.. with southerly winds snow should melt pretty fast..

Randy
[/b]

Well im pretty sure there will be a squall situation tommorow/lines, i refined my target now to an initial target of Percival IA, i think i will have a better chance down there tommorow, and things look better for an evening event so i will have time to make changes if i have to... yeah snow cover is pretty much gone ... and out west shouldnt hurt us a bit... all im saying is hearing them tornado sirens today for the drill... was a welcomign sound for me ;-)... and hopefully i will be hearing them tommorow ( no harm intended ) .. hey put this way its almost april, and everyone im sure has had a chase opportunity this year so far...

good luck to all

oh and to mention( i heard talk of Speed Traps tommorow for NE, and IA) i saw plenty today on Hwy 36... and Hwy 75

 

[mikegeukes]

Based on 12Z data
Area: NE-IA-KS-MO area

Elevated convection: if this occurs in the time frame
of early morning, will this lead to cloudy skies that
may linger in the afternoon hours, hopefully the dry slot clear
things out as the approaching dryline and low gets closer.

If things clear out, could see a few discrete supercells,
before merging into a squall line later on in the day,
Storms should be moving pretty fast also,

Key to this: will be the dry slot to clear things out.

Mike

 

[John Farley]

At this time I like the area from Lincoln to Omaha, in the nose of Theta E advection, between 18 and 00Z, adjusting accordingly as new runs come out and the day progresses. Of course, I do have a northern bias since I can't get far enough south to chase the southern target.

Melanie
[/b]

It still looks good to me in this area. In fact, on this morning's NAM run, it looks like the surface low and the 500 mb low are a little closer together, which according to Jon Davies' talk at the Chaser Convention is one of the things that favors tornadoes in these setups.

Irony of ironies - I will be arriving in Omaha tomorrow, but cannot chase, due to commitments at the conference I am attending there. It is tempting to rent a car, but I really do have things I want and need to do at the conference, and I won't have my equipment anyway (and don't want to bother taking it to the conference). So good luck to all, and if you have success in that area, I will be back at my conference drooling.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I just booted up BUFKIT about 5pm today and looked at profiles for Lincoln, NE and St Jo, MO and Des Moines, IA.
Well, it doesn't even look like the same day anymore. Dynamics have improved, instability has significantly changed, and the LCLs and LFCs remain low. It looks like Lincoln, NE area would probably be a good starting point now, where parameters are in place from about 12pm to 3pm. Next, parameters will be favorable at a north-south line going through St Jo, MO from 2pm-5pm, and then on to the north-south line through Des Moines, IA from 5-8pm.
I definitely could see some mini-supercells with at least isolated tornadoes forming in this environment. I haven't looked much at places along the dryline, so i cant say much there. Hopefully we get some quick overnight showers to bump the dewpoints up at the surface so we dont have to worry about the models over estimating the moisture flow from the Gulf.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

If the NAM is telling the truth, then I think a tornado outbreak is likely tomorrow. I like the dryline between Wichita and the border. The dryline also looks good in central Oklahoma and in the Red River area, but weaker deep layer shear is making me want to stay North of OKC. I don't think it matters a whole lot where you go along the dryline because IMO tornadic supercells are likely all the way from northern Kansas to Ardmore. There are just a few things that look better to me in the Wichita to OKC area. The shear vector here is more normal to the boundary than it is in northern Kansas and deep layer shear is stronger in southern Kansas than it is farther South. With the LLJ screaming all night, I don't think moisture is going to be a problem. Dewpoints are in the 60's South of Dallas and I think that will easily make it up to the Kansas-Oklahoma border area by tomorrow. I would be surprised if SPC didn't go moderate with a hatched area along the dryline for tornadoes. The one thing that scares me is the possibility of precip. and cloud cover over the warm sector. I am optimistic though, so I don't think it will be a problem. Good luck to everyone out chasing tomorrow.

 

[Justin Walker]

After looking at the 0z NAM, i think I will shift my target toward the sfc low in northcentral KS. The 0z pulled the system sw of the previous runs. I think we will have no problem getting low 60's Td's into nc KS by 18z thurs. CAPE values of 2500 J/kg will be nice. The cap should be very weak with only 12C at 850hPa and 700hPa of 1C. Initiation will occur b/t 18-21z with the NAM showing no CIN. 3km SRH very nice at 250-300 m2/s2. I think my plimiary target will have to be Salina. If only we had a stronger cap to hold things down for longer.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Observations after reviewing tonight's NAM run - instability axis and theta-e tongue look to be fairly narrow, but w/ workable window between 18z and 00z over eastern tier of KS. Also like the looks of low LCL and LFC's and passage of surface convergence @ peak diurnal heating in this area. Upper air support looks to be fair but not quite as favorable as the recent outbreak, w/ neutral tilt of trough @ 250mb. As mentioned previously, targeting looks to be heavily influenced by cloud breaks and development of a dry slot. Tempting to force a decision between the surface low and dry line much further S and W, but in this case my instincts say an intermediate patch should hold the best probabilities - just enough of a bulge along the surface front to support locally backed surface winds. For the I-35 corridor S of OKC, the setup just looks too familiar - veering winds at all heights - to get hopes up. I would set up along U.S. 69 in eastern KS in mid-afternoon, monitor the satellite pictures, and go from there.

Of course, as it happens, I won't be out myself. We just opened a bagel shop in Charleston, SC, so that will have me detained until early May, when I plan on going to KC for several weeks. However, if anyone needs a nowcaster, feel free to PM me. Good luck to all chasing tomorrow!

 

[Rich Thompson]

Well, tomorrow is a rare day off, so Roger Edwards and I will likely give it a shot. Given that Norman is our starting point and we can't leave too early, we'll consider areas from se KS to about the Red River. I expect some pre-frontal convection to develop early in the morning near and e of the sharpening dryline across wrn OK, and these storms will spread ewd during the day. How this influences the warm sector remains to be seen. However, it does look like there will be at least a narrow corridor of surface heating w of the early convection. Also, we may have the benefit of a rain-cooled boundary somewhere in OK along the srn periphery of the early storms.

Some folks have mentioned weaker shear S of Wichita, but I don't see that as a problem. We won't be dealing with 3000 J/kg MLCAPE tomorrow, so I prefer the looks of the NAM forecast hodographs and slower estimated storm motion near MLC at 00z to areas farther north. Cross dryline flow should be sufficient for a few discrete storms in OK (mid-upper flow and shear vectors oriented W-E, with at worst a SW-NE surface boundary). If a weak rain-cooled boundary can linger into late afternoon, without ruining the warm sector, then the tornado threat could end up being rather focused somewhere in ern OK.

I'm not saying that ern KS is a poor target for tomorrow, I just prefer the ern half of OK with a little slower storm motions and the greater probability of a weak rain-cooled boundary.

Rich T.

p.s. The situation near the surface low looks a little more like a "typical" supercell setup than one of Jon's cold core cases given the relatively open wave and fast motion of the entire system. Still, if you want to chase the cold core and triple point, make sure you're far enough west by 18z!