3/29/07 FCST: TX/OK/KS/NE

[Doug Mitchell]

Didn't see a forecast thread for today so I thought I'd kick things off.

Today isn't looking as impressive as yesterday but then again, yesterday was looking like everything was going to turn into a linear mess by mid-afternoon .

I think the models are underestimating the recovery from tonight's squall/MCS. Areas ahead of the dryline should receive ample heating and the RUC is showing nice backing sfc winds at 18z. I can't really name a target at the moment as anywhere from Hebron, NE down to Wichita Falls/DFW area look good but I'm thinking I'll head down to Wichita tomorrow morning and go from there.

EDIT: I whiffed on the wishcasting, still lots of grunge left over.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I am wiped out from yesterday's chase, but I might go poke around tonight since it is close to Wichita. I don't know though, a nap sounds pretty good too.
If I go out I would head straight West due to proximity. Somewhere around Medicine Lodge seems about right. I haven't done much forecasting yet since all my computer time over the last week went into forecasting for yesterday's setup, but it looks like today's potential in Kansas is all going to come down to airmass recovery. Extrapolating satellite loops makes me think we should clear along the dryline/front by Medicine Lodge around 1PM so we should get decent insolation. Temps are only forecast to reach the high 60's and dewpoints should get back into the high 50's. Forecast soundings show that we should reach convective temps, especially if we get good clearing by 1. Deep layer shear is going to be good AOA 50kts, and low level shear really isn't all that bad either. CAPE leaves a lot to be desired according to the NAM and RUC, but I think that is all going to come down to the airmass recovery today. WRF precip. graphics don't show anything getting going until after dark, but I'm not sure I'm buying that. Anyways, I don't think we have a reasonable chance at any tornadoes around Medicine Lodge, but I might head out there just because it's close to home and I wouldn't want to miss anything.

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: DFW-Gainesville westward TIME OF DEPARTURE: Sometime this afternoon. Still waiting to see if I will really chase today. Squall line is approaching the area has shown little signs of weakening. In fact, new convection has begun along the southern end of the line. Redevelopment of severe activity is likely, but trying to find the supercell will be difficult. PROS - Upper low/trough still west of us. Southwest winds aloft with backed east-southeast winds at the surface make for excellent low-level directional shear. RUC hints at surface low near SPS at 0z and has a sharp dryline boundary south of there to ABI. Skies are breaking out in Dallas this morning with nice strobing strato-cu. CONS- Linear convection already underway. There are literally hundreds of miles of outflow, so where does one go? I will continue to watch this event and see if it unfolds like the Springtown, TX tornado event I saw in 1990 where new tornadic cells developed along the leading edge of a north-south outflow boundary from the previous nights/morning squall line. TM

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm just great from my virtual bust yesterday and night in Enid, OK. Wichita Falls and points south - southeast is probably the safe play, but it's already so trashy convective down there. Right now I'm agreeing with Mike G. and thinking I'll virtually amble up the road to Alva. The airmass is still pretty good up here and there should be decent sunshine and dryline to the west. Plenty of time before anything shows.

 

[matt patterson]

It looks like we are getting some rapid clearing in west and sw ok, that looks to be progressing to the east and northeast.. SBCAPE already to 1500 and MLCAPE is at 1000 with pockets of 1500... Maybe we can get something to happen on the DL afterall...

 

[Kenny Drake]

The only problem I see with anything that goes up along the dryline in western OK is the low Tds... mainly in the mid 50s. Hopefully the ongoing convection in southern OK/central TX will push NE and the moisture boundary very evident on the OK Mesonet will push WNWD and meet up with the cold front/dryline in western OK. If/when this moisture axis meets up with the dryline things will probably happen fairly quickly given the entire area is under sunshine and looks to remain so for the rest of the afternoon. This would be the best scenario for those tornado chasers hoping to see something today after the big bang yesterday. I will be busy today with class and the less than great scenario will probably keep me in class. However, with clearing in western OK I'm sure there will be something out west later today/evening.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

I have my eye on western Ok/southern Ks. Td's continue to climb in OK and shear profiles still look good. Starting to see breaks in the clouds E of ICT now. If we can get the sun out it should speed up the recovery process from the mush we got last night and help set things into motion. If we are going to have anything north of the state line it will have to come from Ok because with the activity in Tx and now SW Ok sunshine will be really hard to come by today.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Cloud cover is starting to clear along the dryline right on schedule. The best overlap of the moisture and thermal tounges is going to set up in the Alva to Medicine Lodge area and that is where your best instability should be (for people targeting the front up this way). I am planning on getting out of ICT pretty soon. Not expecting much, but I think the potential might be there later this afternoon for a weak tornado or two.

 

[David Wolfson]

At Alva, I'm virtually preparing to get on the road US64 east toward Wakita anticipating a turn north to Anthony, KS. Small storm near Goltry isn't too impressive but it is on the elevated dryline push and separating itself from the line to the east.

21:25Z -- A little cell of interest just popped up east of DDC.

21:56Z -- Turning north toward Anthony, virtually visual following with Goltry storm above. Still not severe, but discrete and hanging in well.