3/28/10 FCST: GA/SC

[Gerard Jebaily]

Current analysis shows nearly stacked sfc low centered in southern Illinois with strong upper level difluence over the south eastern US states and associated 300mb 125 kt Jet. 12z NAM is indicating a warm front to usher in some modest surface flow to the far south eastern states as well as some mid level cooling. The Warm Air Advection in combination with decent mid day surface heating should create enough instability for CAPE around 500 J/Kg. Vertical shear profiles will be on the order of 70 kts and Storm Relative Helicities of 200-300 in Western SC and NE Georgia will be substantial enough to produce severe storms through the late afternoon and evening hours.

My main concerns are moisture quality as the surface flow has not had much time to return to the area. But I'm also concerned about a cloud layer still remaining in the area of interest inhibiting more substantial surface heating.

 

[Tyler Yarnell]

The sun is starting to peek out every so often here, but I agree that clouds are going to hold things up. I'm probably going to hang around here for most of the day and see if I can pick something off within an hours drive or so.

But time is on our side, today is the 26th anniversary of the largest outbreak in North and South Carolina over the past century

 

[Mike Johnston]

Thanks, Gerard. Yes, I've got a bit of an eye on today's setup also. The moisture return I wouldn't call great, but we're 70t/59td here in Charleston at the noon hour w/ some intermittent showers and even a rumble of thunder. Even amidst the onshore flow, the sun has peaked through from time to time and the vertical development of the clouds is a good sign this early in the day. Strictly a back porch "chase" for me today as there isn't an obvious target to sufficiently motivate me to drive to any particular location. The upper level dynamics later on - into this evening - are encouraging, though. Honestly, I'll be grateful for just a good, strong thunderstorm w/ perhaps a little hail. W/ the good shear, though, and some instability evident, a rotating storm isn't out of the question.