3-28-07 FCST: SD / NE / KS / OK / TX

[Alex Lamers]

A couple of interesting things. NWS OUN points out that there is a differential heating boundary forming in the far E TX Panhandle. Low cloud deck evident on visible satellite. KCDS (Childress) reporting BKN038 and KLBB (Lubbock) reporting SCT025 and BKN031. Cu breaking out over much of the warm sector now ahead of this with some CI filtering sunshine blowing off over OK/KS. SPC Mesoanalysis shows pretty strong convergence along the differential heating boundary right now. Actual dryline is lagging back towards NM/TX border and some cu are just beginning to form here as well. I like the differential heating boundary as a target as richer moisture will be readily available to storms here. Dewpoints are roughly 63-66F in this area. Also winds are favorably backed from a southeasterly direction. A target along I-40 near the TX/OK border seems great. NSSL WRF run does appear to have latched on well to the mixier boundary layer in far SW OK correctly as surface winds are backed more to the north towards I-40. That would be my target region right now.

Also found the 18z Amarillo sounding very interesting. Showing a 71% match to tornado cases and a 64% match to significant hail cases. It is very unstable with a small inversion noted around 800mb likely owed to a layer of mixier air from 850-700mb. It is not very substantial though and it shouldn't take much more heating/forcing to push parcels past the LFC.

E TX Panhandle and WC OK look out IMO, I think some nice supercells may be on tap. It will be interesting to see how the next hour or two play out.

AJL

 

[David Wolfson]

Virtually a bit north of Wellington, TX, headed toward Shamrock by 19:45Z. Radar seems to show an elevated grunge-o-matic behind me -- a bit of 700mb affrontogenesis? Either I should right now be where I was three hours ago, or I want to keep on ahead of that mess.

 

[Craig Maire II]

Right now I'm sitting in North Platte Nebraska (a little farther west than I first thought), TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED!

 

[Justin E. Reed]

Dryline is highly visible on the Cannon AFB Radar loop.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

sitting in Conway, Tx (30 miles or so east of Amarillo) and probably about to head north some. Hope nothing breaks out in SW Oklahoma as I have discounted that on the models all day. Seems like the window there is shrinking as thicker clouds are moving in from Texas into that area but who knows.

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

Aaron and I are sitting in Atwood, KS just North of Colby. We have good road options out of here and may end up heading west depending on how things play out.

Things are looking good.

 

[Heath Schroeder]

SPC uses some interesting wording on their meso discussion. "Tornado Watch Will Be Required Soon" and a new PDS Tornado Watch OK & TX Panhandles.

 

[rdale]

That means they are coordinating with the local NWS offices to issue a Tornado Watch.