3/27-3/29 Blizzard

[Craig McPeck]

Over the past 5 days at least, the gfs model has been flip flopping between a rather big winter storm or nothing..the past 2 models runs have really kicked this storm into high gear;

If doesnt work; http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_156.shtml

 

[Matthew Harding]

With most of my attention (and I am sure everyone elses) focused on Monday's severe weather event, it seems as though the winter aspect of this next storm has gotten lost in the shuffle. It was very interesting to read the AFD from Wichita yesterday, in it they mentioned the potential for strong, long-tracked tornadoes and the potential for significant accumulating snows. Welcome to spring in Kansas!

Anyway, the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistent in their placing of the low, its potential track, and strength (sub 1000mb). Confidence continues to grow that there will be one last kick in the pants from old man winter. The GFS paints out a significant snow across most of central and western Kansas (I will include the link below). Also of note, a quick peek of the WRF and NAM suggest that this system might slow down, thus delaying the onset of winter precipitation (and subsequent severe weather). It will be interesting to see whether or not this trend continues once this system gets into better upper air sampling. This moisture will be a godsend to the farmers in western Kansas, as they have experienced a bone dry winter, lets hope this forecast verifies.

Link: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ICT

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Looks like NWS Pueblo is pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch this afternoon. I'm curious to see if NWS Denver does the same... I had figured they'd at least wait for tonight's model runs. Then again, I suppose the current variation in model solutions has less of an impact of Pueblo's CWA. They're likely to get dumped on either way.

Looking at the trends in the last few runs of the GFS, however, I think big snow for Denver, the southern foothills, and the Palmer Divide is looking more and more likely. And then there's the slower, snowier NAM solution. I live on the far southwest side of Denver, near the intersection of the foothills and the Palmer Divide, and tend to benefit nicely from these southern track systems. The NE Plains and the northern Denver suburbs are sometimes left high and dry (relatively speaking), but the upslope tends to be pretty deep and long-lived on my side of town. So, I'm feeling pretty good about this storm.

We really need the snow, so I have my fingers crossed.

 

[jshields]

i too have been watching this storm for the last 3 days or so. after all the hail and tornadoes here in eastern nebraska yesterday, its crazy that there looks to be a big snowstorm possible this weekend somewhere in the plains! i've noticed starting with the 0Z runs today of both the gfs and european models, that they have tracked the low further and further south, now taking the track across the panhandle of texas and southern oklahoma before ejecting to the northeast. this has happened with the last 3 runs so it looks like it's attaching onto that track now. prior to that it was very consistent with bringing the low further north through kansas and missouri. this track put nebraska and iowa in a band of potentially very heavy snow. at one point the models were spitting out near 2" of qpf, and most if not all of it falling as snow the local wfo's discussions still aren't set on the track as the low is still not on land off the canadian coast. we'll see what happens

 

[Dan Robinson]

NAM and GFS estimating up to 20" for the OK panhandle, SW KS and SE CO:

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_99HR.gif

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_84HR.gif

 

[Andrew Francis]

It seems this has kind of gone by pretty hush-hush for the Oklahoma area. Everything has been focused on the severe weather this week which lead this to kind of slip by.

I don't think anyone is really prepared for a heavy snowfall at this point. We have been spoiled with 70+ highs consistently for the past weeks until this week where we have struggeled to make 60 each day.

It looks as if they are not going to pull the trigger for the Central OK area just yet. As we are on the fringe of the track (as usual! lol).

Will be interesting to see how the storm is looking tomorow night to really see who is going to get these foot+ snowfall totals.


Local news channels here are saying just be on standby for major winter storm here in OKC metro, but it is not a sure thing. I am willing to bet that the grocery stores will be packed full on friday here!

 

[terra seright]

The weather man is talking blizzard here in the TX panhandle, so far...

http://www.newschannel10.com/global...d=3584937&topVideoCatNo=118078&autoStart=true

 

[Chris Nuttall]

The weather man is talking blizzard here in the TX panhandle, so far...

http://www.newschannel10.com/global...d=3584937&topVideoCatNo=118078&autoStart=true

And speaking of, NWS-AMA issued a Blizzard Watch this afternoon for large part of the Panhandles. The models have been very consistent with the track, which worries me. When I left work this afternoon, our forecast was a total of ~8" in AMA, but up to 14" in GUY.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

As much precip the models have been showing the last few runs I would not be shocked at some totals close to 2 feet around the Liberal - Guymon area. Any small shift could put it right along I-40. Last time we got 15+ inches around here it brought everything to a stop, but there wasn't 30+ mph winds like there is forecast with this one. There could be some serious drifts around the Panhandles. Some of the worst snow storms to strick the Panhandle have been in March, which is why this storm needs to be watched very closely.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Meanwhile in Denver, this storm looks to hit the sweet spot for the northern front range urban corridor with a good flow of moist upslope conditions for a good amount of time leading to snow totals in the foot or more range for the metro area and up to two feet west and south of town. The eastern plains, including the southeast plains, look to see a good shot as well. The whole state of Colorado looks to get thumped by this pretty good with the only real exception being the Pueblo area. This will be a very large snowstorm for Colorado.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

How many individual runs and how many different models now are continuing to indicate >15" snowfall accumulations in and around S KS, NW OK, and the N TX PH? It's absolutely remarkable how consistent the forecast for extraordinarily heavy snow has been in terms of run-to-run continuity (the max accum moves around, but the total potential accums have been >20") and model-to-model agreement. I'm shocked to see such agreement of a very high-end snowfall event in the last several days of March. I know some big-time snowfalls have occurred in March, but this one is particularly late and particularly intense.

EDIT: Looks like the OUN evening AFD update takes a similar tone.

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier] NAM
AND GFS HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR GUNS WITH RUN-TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN THE RANGE OF 20+ INCHES IN PARTS OF NW OK AND ADJACENT KS/TX -
WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR MUCH LESS THE
FIRST WEEK OF SPRING.... [/FONT][FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]00Z NAM HAS DOUBLE-DIGIT TOTALS INTO EXTREME
NW OK BY MID-EVENING FRIDAY... 15-20 INCHES INTO HARPER COUNTY BY
09Z SAT... AND AGAIN DUMPS AN EXTRAORDINARY 30+ INCHES IN SW KS.
THIS RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LEADING TO
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS SNOW EVENT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
AGES... AND THAT WE NEED TO RAMP IT UP FURTHER WITH WHAT AMOUNTS
TO A "PDS" WINTER STORM WATCH. UPDATED WSW WILL TREND THAT WAY
AND SHOULD BE OUT BY 10 PM. STRONG WINDS AND RELATED BLOWING/DRIFTING
EASILY COULD MAKE THIS ONE OF THE MOST CRIPPLING S-PLAINS
SNOWSTORMS IN RECENT HISTORY... ALTHOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN BLIZZARD CRITERIA. ALL
USERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SERIOUSLY AND
PREPARE AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOR WHAT MAY END UP BEING ESSENTIALLY
AN UNPRECEDENTED LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN NW OK.[/FONT]

 

[Dan Cook]

How much of a dent will this put in the drought out there?

 

[BrandonWhittington]

its amazing to me that we go all winter season with only 2.03 inches of snow and the first week of Spring, we could be dealing with over a foot of snow!!!!

All i know is that the models are staying really consistant with runs, and if this system moves about 50-60 miles further south than models are indicating, the whole panhandle will be shut down..5 inches of blowing snow has shut I-40 down in Amarillo before and there is no tellings what will happen if models hold true.

This could and more than likely will be a drought-buster for us in the panhandles. Its hard to believe that the 00Z NAM is putting over 30 inches of snow after it is all said and done!!!!!!

 

[Dan Cook]

If that 30+ inches of snow in the panhandles happens, that would be a possible game changer for possible severe in a few months, wouldn't it?

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

I'm having a hard time digesting the potential for this event. For those who know me, I'm about as much into anything winter related (except for those apocalyptic ice storms the southern plains can get) as I am into severe weather. So.. I'm ALL ABOUT chasing this event. Hopefully, if all goes as planned, I'll probably head to Woodward or maybe even just north of the OK./KS. border say around Medicine Lodge Thurs. evening unless tomorrow's severe event near the Red River area in Okla./TX looks better than what's expected. I'll know more tomorrow as I just got my computer back after some repairs from the Apple Store in OKC. Except... ALL of my bookmarks including some 300+ weather links were erased. Can you say.. "Rocky is MAD"? Hopefully, I'll finally get my winter fix for the season.