Shane Adams
Potentially active day tomorrow across these areas, surprised no one's been talking abut it prior.
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Mickey Ptak
EF5
Indeed, according to the SPC it looks great for East TX and on eastward. I am waiting on the 12Z NAM run to come out before I say much more.
Mick
Ben Prusia
EF4
Wow, is all I can say about the 12Z ETA for eastern LA and western MS. The 12Z ETA is predicting CAPES of higher than 3000 J/kg, along with LI of -8. Moisture won't be a problem with dewpoints of the 70s, along with temperatures in the mid 70s, looks like a soupy atmosphere will be present.
If I had to make a prediction of a chase target tomorrow based on data from the ETA model, I would choose Alexandria, LA and maybe head east from there. It'll be nice to armchair chase this one!George Tincher
EF5
It appears that the thread started in W&C about when we'll see our first high risk of the year will likely be answered tomorrow. Sadly, it appears that it will effect many of the same areas hit hard this past Tuesday.
Needless to say, all the ingredients are coming together for a major league severe weather outbreak tomorrow, starting in far ERN TX and working it's way across LA, MS and AL into the evening and overnight. I'll not go into all the parameters, conditions, etc, as SPC and nearly every other pro and amateur forecast I've read about tomorrow have done a wonderful job of that already. But let's just say that nearly all of the parameters are getting into the red flag territory. Dangerous day shaping up for the south again.
It's too bad this will happen in this area, considering few people have basements due to the high water tables. And poorer visibility down in that area as well as the fact much of this may occur after dark are two other things that worry me. All we can hope is that the Tuesday event has everyone's attention and they'll be prepared. As for chasing, I doubt many attempt it, but there might be a few who try ERN TX or NW LA around Shreveport.
-GeorgeGlen Romine
EF5
I thought that Jeff Snyder had opened a thread on this date earlier - then maybe he deleted it after it stopped looking like a so. plains event? Anyhow - there are several awkward factors to consider after reviewing the latest NAM - most alarming is that an upper wave sweeps through very early - and drags a weak low pressure along the front. There is some enhancement in the surface wind fields (from the ageostrophic circulation associated with the wave), but this quickly passes through the instability axis - and leaves behind a rather disorganized looking surface wind field. If a stronger than forecast mesohigh is left by the morning convection, there could be some better focusing for afternoon convection, but that is not going to be known until tomorrow. There is another much stronger wave that sweeps out late - perhaps after dark by the time the forcing reaches the instability. So based on looking at the NAM only, chasers considering this event would have two options - try the morning potential across MS-AL, or wait across east TX for the late wave and hope for early initiation. Probably worth checking the WRF forecast and the GFS to look for consensus.
GlenGlen Romine
EF5
Despite the lack of interest in this thread - guess I'll update based on more recent information. After checking other models and meso runs, there continues to be poor agreement on the potential for east Texas tomorrow afternoon into evening. The GFS is more progressive with the upper level system, whereas the ETA is slower and the WRF model slower still. 12Z NAM clears out 700 mb RH across the region, whereas the GFS keeps clouds around. 18Z NAM much more agressive with building surface ridge in behind the initial wave, pressing the boundary nearly to the gulf coast. The updated day 2 maintained the moderate risk, but noted some of the weakenesses in the event already discussed in posts above. Still looks like the greatest tornadic threat with be overnight from LA through MS and then we move to the next forecast thread time period. As a prelude - looks like it might be a memorable Easter weekend.
GlenShane Adams
Not liking the forecast speed max flying in to the tune of 80-90kts at h5 around 21Z, this could potentially rocketship any decent storms to LA within an hour. Also not thrilled about the most-recent LL windfield forecasts; it just dies at h85 where we really need it. Best bullseye to my specs as of now looks to be central/eastern LA into extreme western MS, with backed surface winds along the boundary and the best CAPE. The 850 winds kind of kill the helicity, but any storm along a boundary has tornadic potential. Biggest fly in the ointment as of now to me is timing; start early in east TX and hope for decent storms? Or blast further east into central LA hoping for daytime storms?
Jeff Snyder
EF5
One thing that may be important tomorrow is that the fast storm motions will enhance SRH. Since storms may be moving to the northeast at a pretty good clip, the Storm-Relative winds will probably be pretty strong out of the east-southeast in the low levels, in which case the absolute (ground-relative) wind speeds don't really tell the story very well...Glen Romine
EF5
00Z NAM now coming in, and the trend suggested by the 18Z MESOETA continues. sfc low developing further south, seperated from the best upper level divergence and as such mid-level lapse rates are marginal over the moist axis. Further, the low-level winds continue to look rather disorganized, and as Shane mentioned - screaming cell motions by late in the day (approaching 40 knots). Could see some cells develop along the front draped back to the hill country that could do some magic with the boundary - but I wouldn't be excited about it at this stage.
As for Jeff's comment on sfc winds - I think there is still a minimal sfc wind needed to support tornadoes. I can't think of an occasion with significant tornado potential with sfc winds under 10 knots. Not saying it can't happen - but I think climatology is against it.
For those who decide to chase this event - best of luck - and keep your day 2 options open.
GlenSimilar threads
