3/23/07 NOW: TX/NM/OK/KS

[HAltschule]

Anyone watching that monstrous supercell NW of Amarillo, TX? There is an SVR out for it but I think it should have been upgraded to a TOR Warning given the g2g shear and hooking going on. At the very least, it is likley putting down baseball sized hail now. What a storm!!

 

[HAltschule]

This storm now has a MESO feature with it and is hooking tremendously. I am even more susprised that this is not tornado warned. More surprising is that this supercell is in a miminally unstable to somewhat stable enviroment. It appears to be along or ahead of a warm front/pseudo-warm front that lies from West of Amarillo North into Southern Kansas.

 

[HAltschule]

GR3 shows a TVS with this supercell as of 3:15 PM EST. It also has 3.00" diameter hail.

Oh yeah...still no tornado warning.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Oh yeah...still no tornado warning.

I'm thinking AMA is getting ground truth, though who would be out there (sheriff?) is anyone's guess. I doubt any chasers were targeting there.

Couple other storms of interest: Near Fort Sumner NM, and SSW Carlsbad.

*edit If that Ft Sumner storm turns right a bit, things will get interesting in Tucumcari in awhile.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Here's something you don't see everyday:

20 DBz blips with severe hail markers, severe warned, and one with a TVS.

The higher level scans show the storms much better as does the satellite, but man, that will catch you off guard if you are only watching the lowest scan level.

 

[Mark Farnik]

I think the reason the supercell in the northern TX Panhandle hasn't been tornado warned (besides the fact I don't think AMX is paying attention) is the fact that it is traversing over the largely open country of northern Oldham and southern Hartley counties. I doubt there are any chasers on it, either.
I'm almost certain that it put down a tornado in eastern Hartley County between Hartley and Channing given the well defined hook and strong TVS it had as it passed between those two towns, but no one was out there to see it and call it in. It's headed toward the Cactus/Sunray area, so once it gets there I would expect some reports to start coming in...
The supercell near Ft. Sumner in eastern New Mexico is the one to be watched in the Moderate Risk area attm. It's a very isolated storm and looks like it's already trying to develop a hook. As Bob observed, if this cell turns a bit to the right things will get indeed get interesting in Tucumcari.
EDIT: The TX Panhandle cell is now SVR warned for northwestern Moore Co. including Dumas and Sunray.
EDIT 2: The cell southwest of Tucumcari in western Quay County is hooking out and now has a TVS! It's also beginning to deviate right, with a motion just east of north. Watch out, Montoya and Tucumcari!

 

[HAltschule]

I hope there are no hikers on the volcano today. The Tucumcari storm looks nasty. That said...it is a great area for tornado visibility.

EDIT: It looks like the Tucumcari supercell should be bringing down 60-80mph winds pretty easily right now.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Hail!

I'm currently getting some very small hail in Los Alamos (NW of Santa Fe)...second time today, LOL. Unusual March day for NM! If it accumulates some, I'll take a pic or two.
*edit Looks like TCC storm went to hell.

 

[Dan Robinson]

FYI, Just realized there are two NOW threads for today.

 

[HAltschule]

Unbelievable. That Tucumcari, NM supercell is a monster!! 75 DBZ returns and a VIL of 68. It has got to be dropping some gorilla sized hail and 70+ mph winds!!!

PS: There still very well might be a tornado on the ground based on all of the radar data I have been looking at. Will be interesting to see what reports come in.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Yikes...no sooner do I say it looks like it went to hell, it explodes on the radar presentation. Now says 76dbz. Echo top 45-49K. There is some high terrain/mountains just S of TCC. This thing may have exploded when it started ingesting the lower-elevation PBL, and sfc winds became un-fettered by mesas, etc.

edit: Upon further review, I see this actually missed TCC to the E by some measure. Good thing.

I also am wondering if the high reflectivity isn't due to some debris...

 

[HAltschule]

Latest 5pm EDT observation from Tucumcari had PK Gust of 41mph with supercell that moved through.

Nickel Sized hail also reported.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I had to review the loop to see what happened with the core of the TCC storm as it passed over I-40; at 2038z, it was directly over TCC. In the next scan, 2042z (using CoD radar), dbz was 76. By 2055, the hook extended ENE of TCC by about 10 miles or so, but still only ~1-2 miles N of I-40, leading me to believe the core had missed TCC.

Storm just NE Roswell now at 78dbz

"TCC" storm now TOR warned

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Could be a tornado on the ground with that Tucumcari cell now north of Logan. What a weird TOR warning polygon. Is it about to enter a new WFO area? It's going to cross out of that warning in several minutes.

Suppose if I had read the warning text I'd know there was already a tornado reported.

 

[HAltschule]

Tornado Warning FINALLY issued for the cell that is north of TCC. But it took until law enforcement reported the tornado on the ground for them to issue the warning. From my perspective the TOR warning should have been issued LONG BEFORE it was. TVS signatures, g2g shear and supercell appearance were surely sufficient to indicate a tornado was occurring or indicated by doppler radar.

IE: Terrible Warning decision-making from the responsible office if you ask me.

EDIT: Feel free to chime in whether you agree or disagree if you'd like.