3/22/07 FCST: OK/TX

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I guess I'll start a thread for Thursday as well. This day maybe interesting, but is still a difficult forecast. As of right now I'm thinking SC/SE OK, N/C TX, and W AR will be the most affected areas. We will be working with deeper moisture than on Wednesday with 65F dewpoints all the way to the Red River!!! The question is if the cap can keep the convection discrete enough. If the cap is able to do this, supercells are a good bet, but storm motions will be faster than on Wednesday and over more infavorable terrain. I will be chasing this day if it varifies and as of now would head to N Texas west of Ft Worth somewhere along I20 southward. Still many things can change over this weekend before we get a good picture of what's going on which should be by Monday.

 

[afischer]

Thursday's a looong ways off, but the last 2 or 3 runs of the GFS have consistently forecast a potentially incredible set-up for the Pecos River valley of southwest TX. Latest Euro looks very similar, if a tad "slower." Something to watch as the upper trough evolves off the west coast and the models get a better handle on things.

 

[Ray Walker]

Well Thursday has the potential for a major event but also it could end up being nothing more than a heavy rainfall event with scattered severe hailers.
Moisture will be very deep and windfeilds will be nice. However if widespread precip continues then severe weather will be scattered at best. However if an area of clearing accurs across a certain area or even a widespread area then severe storms will be very likely.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Well well well Looks like tommorows action will be in my back yard so of course im not passing this up. Capping will be weak enough to allow the development of vigiours storms by late Thursday afternoon along and north of the front. Sufficent shear with cap values above 1000 j/kg, plus convective instability should support sups so long as precip doesnt break out over the entire area. Storms along or south of the surface boundary are the most likely to produce isolated tornadoes. Storms expected in SC/SE KS Im leaving work early tommorow to chase this. Anyone else going to be in SC/SE KS tommorow?

I think its safe to Add KS to the list for the topic title.

 

[mike scantlin]

i'll be in south central ks. i got called in to work, but i told the boss no way. however, my car is acting up, and i will have to fix it before i go. also, i will be activating my mobile threat net in the morning. talk about last minute eh? i guess i will hang out a little south of the front and wait for something cool to happen. hopefully this marginal setup will give us a more than marginal chase.

 

[BrandonWhittington]

Im Really starting to favor more toward southwest KS and the Oklahoma Panhandles... Models are showing a surface low forming over northeast NM and Southeast CO. I will go with what I have and head toward the triple point in Southwest KS and the Central Oklahoma Panhandle. If moisture levels can stay about the same as they are right now, This area could be a second area to watch for. The cap will be present but not impossible to break.. Find the break in the clouds along the dryline and front/surface low, should mix up to be a decent day. CAPE values are expected to be in the 1300-1800 east of the surface low and dryline. I will have to look at data in the morning and go from there. Isolated tornadoes are not out of the question.....

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Checking a few forecast soundings from Earl's page I only found one station, Pratt, with more than 1000 j/kg at 0z. And this is a tall skinny CAPE profile which can signal weak parcel accelerations and updraft problems in strong shear. Still, a lifting front is always a "feature of interest."

 

[Dal Archer]

After checking the models I tend to agree with Amos. I am dearly interested in going out tomorrow as this should be a relatively short drive from the Tulsa area, but I am going to watch this closely. This setup has left me far from optimistic. The CAPE profiles are marginal (and very limited in area).

I am also worried about precip firing up all along the front and preventing cell isolation from occuring.

However, on the positive side, it does appear that there will be some upper support in the form of a jet streak which still shows on the latest models and given the right circumstances I am still hoping for some action.

Oh well, if nothing else maybe I can at least get out and see some rain (it is becoming ever more infrequent in my neck of the woods).

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Hoping for a miracle today lol The day out here E of ICT has started out sunny but over the last 20 min a stratus deck has started to move in from OK and is covering a good portion of the sky Only chance for anything seems to be drifting away minute by minute.

Edit: Well that stratus deck hasnt got its act together yet. The sun is still out and temps are rising.

 

[David Wolfson]

Am on the virtual road from the OKC area toward Monahans, TX, having given up on Wakita-Enid early last evening. Monahans was my general target yesterday noon, and nothing much has changed since. While there's still some interesting leftovers and boundaries in the ICT area, any decent forcing is likely to hang back close to the cut-off low, plus general grunge likely to limit heating.

The MAF sounding is pretty decent and there's some chance the clouds may clear enough to get a daytime heating bonus, too. Low level flow should continue nicely backed with dews in the low 60s. Isolated storms should be moving briskly but not insanely toward the northeast. Well, let's see what happens -- only lukewarm for decent storms today. The cutoff system is still playing it pretty close in. I'll be down here tomorrow, too, most likely, so best get the virtual driving out of the way and have time for virtual sightseeing. FWIW.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Its 11:30 am and although a stratus deck tried to move in enough heating has taken place this morning to erode that and now we have a fairly good sized cu field just E of ICT that extends out into E KS and NE OK. Also note that td's have climbed as high as 62F and temps have also climbed above 70F. Also the cap is sitting around 1500 j/kg with the front pushing its way to the south very slowly . Im getting excited cause if something does happen im already there and the terrain is chaser friendly in the Land of Oz. The subtropical cloud mass that is now over Harper Co. sw of Ict has not moved ne for an hour and im expecting at least another 1-2 hrs of heating before the cirrus deck moves through.

You know if you ask me the stalled front doesnt look stalled anymore. The surface low in w ks seems to have skipped to the north and along with the front. The cu's have that roll feature to them and the air just feels juiced.

Edit: Cap up to 2000 j/kg with the cirrus deck moving in, tds up to 62 deg and the temp is holding steady at 70F. SPC has upgraded my area to a slight risk now for svr weather with potential for mostly hail and wind but im feeling lucky today. What we really could use is a nice bulge in the front out in E Ks to get things really going lol but im wishcasting there.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Moved post to the Now thread.

 

[David Wolfson]

After a good look at data in LBB (virtually), I plan to hold short of Monahans, at Seminole. It's mixing out and trying to form a dryline further southwest. There's an old boundary near there, too (cf. SPC MD #319). March 22? Heh.

 

[David Wolfson]

Data check at Brownfield. Hmmm. Virtually taking US82/382 west, anticipate NM206 north. Probably go to NOW soon.