Mark Farnik
EF5
While the primary chasing focus of this weekend is on Monday's potential widespread severe weather outbreak, there is an opportunity tomorrow for a few isolated supercells over the northeastern plains of Colorado.
The forecast Skew-T for KAKO at 00z tomorrow shows a fairly robust (for March in Colorado, anyway) 992 j/kg of CAPE and good turning with height (SSE surface winds veering to due W at 500 mb). More interestingly the NAM initiates an isolated cell in the vicinity of Fort Morgan, CO around 21z (3 p.m. MDT). Despite the nice directional shear, the overall shear is somewhat modest, and combined with modest mid- upper 40's dewpoints and high LCL heights should effectively put the kibosh on any tornadic potential. But there's enough shear and moisture that I still expect some nice structure and perhaps some moderate hail/wind from any cells that develop.
Given that I'm out visiting my parents on their farm near Fort Morgan this weekend, I'll definitely be chasing if anything should pop up in the neighborhood.
This could prove to be a very nice little backyard gentleman's chase for the Colorado chaser crew - I expect that if anything goes up tomorrow afternoon, I won't be the only one chasing it
The forecast Skew-T for KAKO at 00z tomorrow shows a fairly robust (for March in Colorado, anyway) 992 j/kg of CAPE and good turning with height (SSE surface winds veering to due W at 500 mb). More interestingly the NAM initiates an isolated cell in the vicinity of Fort Morgan, CO around 21z (3 p.m. MDT). Despite the nice directional shear, the overall shear is somewhat modest, and combined with modest mid- upper 40's dewpoints and high LCL heights should effectively put the kibosh on any tornadic potential. But there's enough shear and moisture that I still expect some nice structure and perhaps some moderate hail/wind from any cells that develop.
Given that I'm out visiting my parents on their farm near Fort Morgan this weekend, I'll definitely be chasing if anything should pop up in the neighborhood.
This could prove to be a very nice little backyard gentleman's chase for the Colorado chaser crew - I expect that if anything goes up tomorrow afternoon, I won't be the only one chasing it
