3/17/08 NOW: TX/OK/KS/MO/AR

[Bill Tabor]

Linear convection through and south of CDS is kicking off due to localized 29.74 low convergence and likely lower 700mb temps. Appears dryline values in the 30's punching from the southwest.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Good line of storms have fired and heading toward Altus. Nothing worth chasing though. There is another storm down by I20 that has my eye right now. My worry is that a squal line is going to form though. It's still early in the day, so we'll have to wait and see. I'd be heading south of I20 though for later today.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Sitting here in Brownwood, TX looking at the storms that have fired on radar. Really surprised SPC went with Severe Storm watch, esp with the conditions in my area. I know its a squall line but I wouldnt be shocked if we see tornadoes.
Right now in Brownwood skies are partly sunny, with plenty of insolation. It feels like late April/early May down here. Muggy as hell. Nice SEly winds. Think im going to sit tight down here for now and moniter things. Im really going to be curious to see how far south this line develops. If it doesnt develop any further south I may jogg up north to I-20.
But I just want everyone to keep in mind what happened last April in the metroplex with an approaching squall line. Always have that in back of my head.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Looks like a cirrus canopy is invading the area of interest which looks like it choked out the Tor warned storm. But still looks like good insolation occurring to the east with a defined CU field. Will see if it can't manage to get its act together shortly again. I was also surprised to see just a SVR watch. I would think they would issue a new watch to the ESE of that though.

 

[Bob Schafer]

20Z RUC has CINH eroding and precip falling along the D/L from the Rio Grande NW Del Rio to the Red River in the next 3 hours. In addition, we have development at the Rio Grande attm. Plentiful instability, but as mentioned, low-level winds are simply not there in C TX/SC TX.

Might be a long night for E TX, though.

 

[Kory Hartman]

A small tornado (landspout?) touched down earlier in Nolan County, TX.

Link to photo is up at: www.severestudios.com

 

[Shane Young]

The cirrus is definitely a problem at this point. It has moved over almost the entire chase area. Some convection also firing up along a band nearer Dallas where the moist axis is now located... and probably forced by the LLJ.

I must agree, I'm a bit surprised they went Moderate earlier.


At this point it doesn't look good. Strong region of AC curvature with height between about 2-5 km on both Lamont and Dalhart.

While the environment 50 miles east of the dryline looks better (backed winds, warmer temps, much higher Td) between Llano up north through Brownwood, the area is depending on low-level forcing, and thus the cirrus could prevent much development at all in the next few hours.

Le sigh.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Noticing a new cell trying to develop just east of Ballinger, TX. GR3 is giving it increasing cloud top height and a BDZ of 40-45 and might increase just something to keep an eye one.

 

[Jason Montano]

I am in Zephyr, TX right now. The temp is 82deg f and the dp is 62. Unfortunately there is a persistent cirrus deck covering the entire area around here. The DL is slowly mixing in this direction but is still 100mi to the west. I may have to head another 70mi to the west that is where the RUC has precip breaking out by 0z.

 

[matt patterson]

Tds (>55) and SFC (>68) temps have been on the rise hear in Tulsa for the past several hours and with the approaching upper energy from the SW we should start seeing development in the next hour or so. Hail and wind will be the most likely threats but with this amount of shear anything can happen

 

[Bob Schafer]

Noticing a new cell trying to develop just east of Ballinger, TX. GR3 is giving it increasing cloud top height and a BDZ of 40-45 and might increase just something to keep an eye one.

49 DBZ now.

I've been watching the VAD/VWP out of KSJT for a little while. Winds at about 850mb have backed from SW to ESE in the last couple hours or so. I believe the resultant convergence is causing stuff to initiate.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Sitting in Throckmorton seeing what to do about the cell quickly developing S of Abilene. Important low-level shear is analyzed to be nearly non-existant, which isn't entirely surprising given model forecasts that showed something similar. Given that we've slowly been meandering southward since early afternoon (originally it was SPS, then Seymour, now Throckmorton, and likely soon-to-be Albany or Breckenridge), we might as we head for it if it's the only game in town. Shouldn't have too much of a problem getting a supercell out of it given the instability and deep-layer shear provided that (!) localized convergence can stay strong enough to sustain the cell. Tds are considerably better from I20 on southward, so it looks like it'll have a better chance than the previous tor-warned cell discussed above.

Of course, now that I write this, it'll face an imminent demise... It does have a strung-out appearance which tells me it's having some issues sustaining itself in the face of the strong deep-layer shear.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

TX 700 MB CAP

One of the problems at this time is a +8C 700MB cap is located from about DFW SW to SAT. ABI was at 8 but has cooled to +6C now. The moist axis from DFW - Paris has fired Tornado watch now in effect.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I'm sitting in Throckmorton, TX right now trying to determine if I want to burn down to Abilene or catch these new cells developing SW of Haskell. Also appears to be a storm firing on the west side of Throckmorton now as I write this.

EDIT: Severe T-Storm Warning for Throckmorton county now. This one's going fast, I'm gonna go ahead and jump on it.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Surface analysis: 23Z

It looks like the cold front extends SW from just E of Frederick, OK; to Crowell, TX; to Swenson, TX where it intersects the DL. The DL extends S to just E of San Angelo. The cell entering western Haskell, CO, is likely become undercut by the CF. Further N and E, the new cell in Throckmorton CO has SERLY SFC flow with dewpoints near 60F. The Cell near Abilene is in an environment of slightly lower dewpoints, and it appears to have just split.
- bill
6:18 PM CDT

EDIT:
Now I realize what the main problem with today is: the SFC flow is too weak, and therefore the inflow gets undercut by storm outflow 30-60 minutes after initiation. This just happened to the Throckmorton cell - rain cooled air has pushed more then 10 miles SE of the cell. I also think the weak SFC flow and hodograph curvatures combined with strong deep layer shear has something to do with the way cells keep splitting with the right-mover dying.
6:52 PM