3/10/06 FCST: NE TX/AR

SPC updated their Day 1 to include a slight risk/2% tor/15% hail in this area. Although depwoints are very meager right now - rich moisture is rapidly advecting northwards from the Gulf and may perhaps be in place to produce some mostly elevated storms with a risk of severe hail.

The latest RUC run breaks out precip along a narrow strip from central TX to northern TX by 0Z and into southern and eastern OK by 03Z.

Some local chasers may want to watch for a potential gentleman's chase.

At around 3pm an MCD was issued for much of northern/eastern Texas stating "isolated supercells possible". The dryline is about 40 miles southwest of Ft. Worth:


65oF+ dewpoints have made it into the MD area and continue to advect northwards. Those of you in the MD area are currently sitting in a big, fat 12 supercell bullseye on the SPC Mesoanalysis page - I hope you feel it! Like that's ever made much of a difference (see last Wednesday) but the number countours are at least nice to look at if you're wishcasting.

Meanwhile, in the wasteland of OUN.... :twisted:

The day started out mostly cloudy here, mostly sunny around noon, and now its back to mostly cloudy with thick cirrus and some altocu streaming NE at a good clip. I'm right on the warm front boundary with a ESE / SE SFC wind and dewpoints are rising. The supposed storms tonight are the least of my worries. I'm watching tomorrow's setup closely.
The METAR's look good for SE TX with sfc dewpoints jumping up toward 60 to 66 in a few areas.