Amos Magliocco
EF5
Tomorrow in Illinois
I still think tomorrow in Illinois is marginally interesting. Tonight, storms
fired in the dryslotted area of southeastern Kasnas and did so near nightfall with 50 temps /upper 40 dps. They were small and weak but one (maybe more--didn't check) went severe, and, more importantly the area cleared out very nicely. I expect much the same effect in western Illinois tomorrow. The line of showers is passing through IL right now, and is very elevated and thus having no effect on BL moisture. Dewpoints behind the showers remain in the 40's and continue to climb.
RUC forecasts clearing skies and with temps in the 60's and dews in the 50's, I certainly think low-topped supercells southeast of the main upper low are possible. I don't know if they're likely or not, but possible, with the very cold midlevel temps of aruond -25C. Deep layer shear should be on the order of about 45 knots and low layer shear is marginally supportive of rotation. SRH values should range around 200 m/s in the area from west central Illinois to the Indiana border. I am thinking the area from Bloomington/Normal to Peoria would be interesting, mainly because it seems the best compromise between promximity to the upper low and access to the better dewpoints. And it's on the interstate highway--built for speed! LOL! Of course I'll look for any boundaries that might remain from tonight's activity, too, and adjust accordingly.
I think storms will fire early, perhaps between 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM, and take off to the east northeast. By 0Z the show will be over as instability disappears after sunset.
I want to chase tomorrow but am currently having a crisis of confidence regarding whether or not I should wait and make a long haul to Texas on Wednesday. Ah, the headaches of spring! :lol:
Amos
I still think tomorrow in Illinois is marginally interesting. Tonight, storms
fired in the dryslotted area of southeastern Kasnas and did so near nightfall with 50 temps /upper 40 dps. They were small and weak but one (maybe more--didn't check) went severe, and, more importantly the area cleared out very nicely. I expect much the same effect in western Illinois tomorrow. The line of showers is passing through IL right now, and is very elevated and thus having no effect on BL moisture. Dewpoints behind the showers remain in the 40's and continue to climb.
RUC forecasts clearing skies and with temps in the 60's and dews in the 50's, I certainly think low-topped supercells southeast of the main upper low are possible. I don't know if they're likely or not, but possible, with the very cold midlevel temps of aruond -25C. Deep layer shear should be on the order of about 45 knots and low layer shear is marginally supportive of rotation. SRH values should range around 200 m/s in the area from west central Illinois to the Indiana border. I am thinking the area from Bloomington/Normal to Peoria would be interesting, mainly because it seems the best compromise between promximity to the upper low and access to the better dewpoints. And it's on the interstate highway--built for speed! LOL! Of course I'll look for any boundaries that might remain from tonight's activity, too, and adjust accordingly.
I think storms will fire early, perhaps between 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM, and take off to the east northeast. By 0Z the show will be over as instability disappears after sunset.
I want to chase tomorrow but am currently having a crisis of confidence regarding whether or not I should wait and make a long haul to Texas on Wednesday. Ah, the headaches of spring! :lol:
Amos
