3/1: FCST: Monday on Great Lakes

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
Watch has been canceled for Western illinois and eastern Iowa areas.

Did you make it to De Kalb for the 0.75 inch hail?

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I'm not really versed on today's situation, but a quick look at the charts suggest that the only decent place to be at this point is between Chicago and Kankakee (or towards the border if the system is on the move). However, convergence along the front is really pathetic and the Cu fields are poorly organized. The showers that exist west of I-57 are in lower theta-e's back in the dry sector. RUC shows barely any CAPE. Oh well, maybe some good cloudscapes in the fading light.

Tim

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

Watch has been canceled for Western illinois and eastern Iowa areas.

Did you make it to De Kalb for the 0.75 inch hail?[/b]

Nope. Didn't have access to a car.

 

[nickgrillo]

I have large doubt as for severe thunderstorms reaching southern / southeast Michigan, but according to the graphic outlook by DTX - a slight chance for severe thunderstorms exists for all of DTX CWA (detroit, ann arbor, monroe, pontiac, midland, saginaw, flint, bay city etc.)

Hoepfully I'll be able to see something as for severe weather today.

Maybe Thursday's system will be better? :roll:

 

[nickgrillo]

BRAND NEW WATCH!

Severe storm potential starting to look good for southwest / southcentral MI this evening



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL 800
PM CST.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I believe the reason for the new watch is that a dry slot has moved in and allowed for some good diurnal heating. Temps now in the low 60's and dewpoints around 50-53F (a report of 55F in Fort Wayne), so instability is building just a bit. I live here in southeast MI, in Rochester Hills, or about 15 miles east of DTX. I wouldn't get too excited here in the DTX area, storms already look rather weak, and with loss of daytime heating, that will only make it worse. Now Thursday is something to look at, synoptic setup very similar to April 3 1974...Check out the latest GFS runs and compare it with the April 3 1974 archive maps here http://www.weathergraphics.com/sfcupr/.

Robert

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[rdale]

"Now Thursday is something to look at, synoptic setup very similar to April 3 1974..."

In what aspect? I see nothing similar for the end of the week other than the fact that we'll have a low pressure system and a 500mb system moving through ;> That's a very powerful image you are bringing up - and don't forget the wonderful world of CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK in the GFS...

 

[mrobinson]

"Now Thursday is something to look at, synoptic setup very similar to April 3 1974..."

In what aspect? I see nothing similar for the end of the week other than the fact that we'll have a low pressure system and a 500mb system moving through ;> That's a very powerful image you are bringing up - and don't forget the wonderful world of CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK in the GFS...

I just started a thread for Thursday