2026-04-24-27 EVENT: OK/TX/AR/LA/MS/MO/KS

[JamesCaruso]

For instance, on the nadocast, is .1% really of any practical value? And going every 1% from 1-3%, again, what value is this other than it looks more "scary" to the untrained eye? And it has a small 30% area right over STL, while the SPC outlook does not. Which one do you think ppl will believe more?

False precision.

As @Luke Penney notes, the general public likely does not use Nadocast, but even the native iOS weather app has this problem, e.g. 10% chance of rain at 3pm and zero percent chance at 4pm, or windy from noon to 1pm.

 

[Jesse Risley]

A few thoughts on the discussion above. I mostly agree with what Boris said about media over-hype and the shortcomings of shutting down school, work, etc. over weather that MAY happen. Specifically with regard to schools, I think that letting them out early for severe weather risk days is a very BAD idea. The kids are going to be safer at school, assuming there is an adequate disaster plan, than they are likely to be at home or elsewhere unsupervised until their parents get home, or than they are likely to be in transit home. More broadly, a lot of people IMHO over-react to what turn out to be relatively minor winter weather events and to forecasts of weather that may or may not happen. 70 years ago, when I was in grade school, I never once got a day off from school just because it was cold, and it got considerably colder in northeast Iowa then than it does now. Now school is cancelled on a regular basis because of cold weather, including in northeast Iowa but many other places, too. There is a cost to excessive school and work cancellations or early releases, as Boris pointed out, and I think it is done too often, although there are some times that do call for it, especially with severe winter storms. But early school releases for severe weather make no sense to me. If there is a major threat of severe weather around the time school normally gets out, it would be safer to just hold the kids at school, use the disaster plan to appropriately shelter them, and then send them home once the threat has passed.

John,

I have my terminal degree in educational administration and have worked in K-12 for over 20 years, though I am currently teaching education law and policy at the university level, so I can offer an alternative perspective. The Enterprise, Alabama tornado and the ensuing deaths at that school in 2007, school-related deaths in Joplin, MO in 2011, in addition to the 10 child fatalities at Plaza Towers Elementary School in Moore, Oklahoma in 2013 changed the entire legal and cultural paradigm on this (for schools). When I was in graduate school in the early 2000s there was never any discussion on cancelling or dismissing school for severe weather. The security camera footage from the high school in Joplin is played and replayed in many contemporary school administrator safety courses.

The reason schools dismiss early is to avoid having students on busses in active transit when severe weather hits since severe weather often arrives in the afternoon or early evening and in the case of some schools bus routes are still running as late as 5 PM (or later). Transportation is literally its own animal. Early dismissals for most districts must be coordinated properly with transportation and also lunch or no lunch. A secondary reason is because many schools were never built with proper "tornado safety" rooms or underground shelters as the old standby when many current schools were built in the mid-20th century was to have students go into hallways, above ground, and "duck and cover" similar to the procedures for nuclear war in the 1950s. Granted, there is no way to ensure that students at home have proper shelter either as home sheltering needs vary widely. Of note is that many schools currently still in use were either constructed during the baby boom bubble in the 1960s and 1970s or had additions constructed during the era, especially in districts with fewer resources to build new.

Schools typically coordinate with the NWS as part of their morning safety briefings on timing and arrival of severe weather (many larger districts now have access to NWS Slack chat) and if there is a higher risk of severe weather (typically level 4 or greater) during a timeframe when students are either likely to be at school or in transit home the thinking is that it is better to have students home safe than at school or traveling when that severe weather hits. Most schools also offer remote learning on days when students are not physically present OR make up the days at the end of the year. It's absolutely a balancing act. The thought process is that the opportunity cost of having an incident, however marginal, outweighs the risk of running school and assuming the best yet hoping that the worse doesn't materialize. We are also an increasingly litigious society. Whenever there are accidents involving school busses there is a likelihood that schools may face tort action even if they ultimately prevail as they have deep pockets. School boards are also political entities and school administrators are subject to the political whims of board members who are blasted by community members demanding retribution whenever should there be an accident involving students that may be weather related.

The modern consensus is trending more towards "better safe than sorry" where cancellations are concerned involving either winter weather or severe weather. The modern generation of parents seems to be more sympathetic to this milieu than the older "tough it out" of yore. School boards tend to leave the decision ultimately to the superintendent since these are highly subjective situations. Parents generally seem to prefer that their kids are home and under their tutelage, or at least in a known place and entity, should they have to shelter for severe weather. Your mileage will vary on these policies.

 

[John Farley]

Thanks for these insights, Jesse. I am sure that concerns about litigation play a large part in the change, and I get the point that some schools have better places to shelter than others. I would maintain my point for schools that have proper places to shelter, but can see some of the argument for early release in the case of those that do not. That said, I wonder whether there is any real social science evidence on whether kids are safer at school or elsewhere (often unsupervised) during severe weather. My guess would be that there is not, but I do not know. This could be a case of decisions being influenced by a few dramatic and tragic events that got a lot of public and media attention, without any real evidence that one course of action or another is really safer.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Thanks for these insights, Jesse. I am sure that concerns about litigation play a large part in the change, and I get the point that some schools have better places to shelter than others. I would maintain my point for schools that have proper places to shelter, but can see some of the argument for early release in the case of those that do not. That said, I wonder whether there is any real social science evidence on whether kids are safer at school or elsewhere (often unsupervised) during severe weather. My guess would be that there is not, but I do not know. This could be a case of decisions being influenced by a few dramatic and tragic events that got a lot of public and media attention, without any real evidence that one course of action or another is really safer.

There is a dearth of good research here but it might make for a great thesis or dissertation topic. AMS does have a best practices guide but since school districts are essentially their own little 'fiefdoms' as I often tell my students local procedures tend to dictate immediate outcomes with these policies and practices.

 

[Patrick K]

Also, teachers and administrators get to go home when they cancel or end school early. Where there is no accountability for doing so (eg, “remote learning” alternative), then there is an incentive to tend to cancel more and more. It’s not just thunderstorms - schools more often cancel for various reasons including low/high temperatures, snow/sleet/ice, flash flood watch, high winds, etc.

As a parent, I can assure you that parents do not generally prefer our kids are home for dubious reasons. But I certainly see why teachers/administrators would prefer this when they can simply declare a remote learing day.

 

[Taylor French]

Given that post pandemic, capabilities to have e learning and work remote for many positions have increased greatly, I believe it makes sense to err on the side of caution, especially for schools and work positions that have this capability. One advantage of more people staying home during winter or severe weather is less traffic on the roads. For winter weather this allows crews to clear the roads more efficiently while for severe, emergency services vehicles have mobility to respond quickly to emergencies and damage paths and are not hindered by clogged roads. Besides severe hazards, the prolific rain and resulting flooding from thunderstorms can create traffic problems that can match that from winter weather, so the fewer cars on the road in the first place the better.

 

[Boris Konon]

False precision.

As @Luke Penney notes, the general public likely does not use Nadocast, but even the native iOS weather app has this problem, e.g. 10% chance of rain at 3pm and zero percent chance at 4pm, or windy from noon to 1pm.

The public may not use nadocast, however, the wx hype-masters that are popular on social media I bet do, and promote it directly or indirectly, and if nadocast looks "worse" than in SPC probabilities, which one do you think they are going to run w/? Many of these hype-masters have little or no understanding of the limitations or caveats of forecast models, taking literal output and treat it as absolute, and gospel as if it *will* happen!

So it is not so simple anymore w/ social media able to make mountain of the molehills all too often, and dupe/freak out the public! Obscure or lesser-know forecast tools/models are not so much at times!

I think some officials/organizations may operate depending a risk level, so it is a go/no go. MDT I can see a as solid threshold to take bigger action, however, do they look at things like the timing, or why it is MDT risk? Wind/hail for MDT is not the same as for tornadoes, as one example.

How many millions$ was lost the other day in the STL metro along b/c of the mass shutdown from business and commerce alone? It is non-trivial, and repeatedly doing this really adds up.

 

[Mike Smith]

How many millions$ was lost the other day in the STL metro along b/c of the mass shutdown from business and commerce alone? It is non-trivial, and repeatedly doing this really adds up.

I am working on an essay for my blog and have been doing some research. The STL WFO issued 27 consecutive tornado warnings that did not result in a tornado. Two were for the City of St. Louis. There was a man on LinkedIn who was an out-of-town resident attending a STL convention. He complained they interrupted the convention -- twice -- and made them take shelter for both false alarms.

Not only did the organization lose valuable productivity, do you think they will be in a hurry to book their next meeting for St. Louis? Multiply this and other examples, large and small. The economic/productivity loss is cumulatively huge as is the hit to the credibility of the warning system.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Also, teachers and administrators get to go home when they cancel or end school early. Where there is no accountability for doing so (eg, “remote learning” alternative), then there is an incentive to tend to cancel more and more. It’s not just thunderstorms - schools more often cancel for various reasons including low/high temperatures, snow/sleet/ice, flash flood watch, high winds, etc.

As a parent, I can assure you that parents do not generally prefer our kids are home for dubious reasons. But I certainly see why teachers/administrators would prefer this when they can simply declare a remote learing day.

Administrators typically do not get to work from home on remote learning days. Teachers do, of course, but depending on the district those are not passive. In the schools I worked in students attend class online with the teacher for a portion of the day (e.g., 8-11 AM or 8 AM - 1 PM) and then the teacher is available through office hours to meet with students individually, grade papers or plan for the remaining portion of the day when not engaging students via instruction online.

Some schools may just dictate that students work independently on assignments posted electronically, especially if students don't all have devices are too young to really navigate the tech, but it's the norm around here that teachers must meet with students via Zoom or Microsoft Teams for a set schedule and have class digitally and all students are given devices (i.e., 1-1 learning).

There's always pushback from parents and community members when schools cancel, even if it's legitimate, so I doubt anyone is making those decisions lightly just to have a day or leisure. It doesn't sit well with a vocal faction of the public, even if they are in the minority in some places, who abhor school cancellations and aren't shy about letting it be known. That's especially true for parents that really do depend on the childcare during work hours.

 

[Boris Konon]

Thanks for these insights, Jesse. I am sure that concerns about litigation play a large part in the change, and I get the point that some schools have better places to shelter than others. I would maintain my point for schools that have proper places to shelter, but can see some of the argument for early release in the case of those that do not. That said, I wonder whether there is any real social science evidence on whether kids are safer at school or elsewhere (often unsupervised) during severe weather. My guess would be that there is not, but I do not know. This could be a case of decisions being influenced by a few dramatic and tragic events that got a lot of public and media attention, without any real evidence that one course of action or another is really safer.

Early dismissal has its own share of problems. I've seen this many times over the years in southern New England. One of the worst incidents was Dec 13, 2007. A moderate snowstorm was forecast to begin by early afternoon, yet just about everyone still when to work and schools had classes. The snow started close to noon and became heavy most areas 1pm. So officials let *everyone* out, business and schools at once. This resulted in massive traffic gridlock across much of the region, w/ people stuck on the road 8+ hours. And road crews could not do their job cleaning the roads. People ran out of gas, which further aggravated the gridlock. Parents were besides themselves w/ their kids stuck out there for so long.

Normal days w/ no wx issues, there is enough heavy traffic in the afternoon when business and school have staggered departures time. So officials could not see that mass dismissal all at once would not cause a traffic disaster?

So it goes beyond just the wx event in question. You sometimes have incompetent/inept people making bad decisions, which ends up making things far worse.

Concerning cold wx, I recall an extended frigid period in New England in the mid-2000s, and most schools stays in session. Near the end of cold period, one last frigid day was going to be the coldest, but only by a couple of degrees overall, and they cancelled school en masse this one day. What kind of logic is that? A couple more degrees in the mean going to make any real impactful difference. Ppl were already used to the frigid wx after several days, so not like shock and awe. I think you can blame a lot of this on the media hype, not keeping things in proper perspective.

 

[Boris Konon]

I am working on an essay for my blog and have been doing some research. The STL WFO issued 27 consecutive tornado warnings that did not result in a tornado. Two were for the City of St. Louis. There was a man on LinkedIn who was an out-of-town resident attending a STL convention. He complained they interrupted the convention -- twice -- and made them take shelter for both false alarms.

Not only did the organization lose valuable productivity, do you think they will be in a hurry to book their next meeting for St. Louis? Multiply this and other examples, large and small. The economic/productivity loss is cumulatively huge as is the hit to the credibility of the warning system.

Yes, it's not just immediate concrete impact. The downstream, long-term impacts that make their way into so many aspects of the system. The effect can be cumulative as well. This goes back to the notion that more and more, we are being "held hostage" by the wx, even run-of-the-mill typical events that we never had "problems" w/ before. I think this goes beyond just the wx -- having a population constantly in fear or on alert, asking to be "saved" by whom/whatever, leads to a population more susceptible to being controlled and manipulated. Fear is an extremely powerful tool and motivator.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Given that post pandemic, capabilities to have e learning and work remote for many positions have increased greatly, I believe it makes sense to err on the side of caution, especially for schools and work positions that have this capability. One advantage of more people staying home during winter or severe weather is less traffic on the roads. For winter weather this allows crews to clear the roads more efficiently while for severe, emergency services vehicles have mobility to respond quickly to emergencies and damage paths and are not hindered by clogged roads. Besides severe hazards, the prolific rain and resulting flooding from thunderstorms can create traffic problems that can match that from winter weather, so the fewer cars on the road in the first place the better.

Yeah I get that… I mean even for myself personally, when I started my career in the early 1990s it was a badge of honor to make it to the office in a snowstorm (I had an hour-long commute), but nowadays it’s pointless when you can just work remotely anyway.

 

[Luke Penney]

Well, here's the result for April 27, now that we've had time for damage assessments to come in.

SPC 12Z and 13Z outlook verification:


There was only one EF-2+ tornado, a single low-end EF-2 in Missouri early in the morning (source).

 

[JamesCaruso]

Now that they have added the intensity forecasts, they should also add intensity to the verification graphic. Just looking at the graphic on the right, verification doesn’t look terrible; yeah, there are more tornados outside of the highest probability area than inside it, but it’s not completely off. But if not for Luke’s footnote, you’d know nothing about the lack of EF-2+ tornados from that graphic. Should be a simple enough enhancement - just color code the tornado symbols. Also have a color for “no rating,” which can also be used just after the event until there is time to rate them.