2025-05-23 EVENT: CO/KS/OK/TX

[Hannah.Taylor]

Bear with me here guys. This is my first forecast attempt in many years. This might be a bit ugly to some of you.

Looking at the GFS and NAM, the moisture is coming in strong in NE CO, SW NE and NW KS. Dews in the near 60º range with temps in the upper 70's to low 80's should give way to discrete and potentially photogenic supercells. 2000 j/kg of CAPE and ample shear at 40kts. The SPC has added in 2% tornado hatched area (Nadocast has NE CO in a 5% tornado hatched area) from the CO/NE Panhandle state line down to the panhandle of OK. Steep lapse rates and more than sufficient lift should help storms get going. The HRRR spits out a supercell right between Sterling and Julesburg at 13z.




Initial target will be somewhere in a triangle between Sterling, Julesburg and Wray but I'll have to re-check the dewpoint map closer to initiation between 21z and 23z and I may adjust my target accordingly to put myself in the best area for Moisture, CAPE, Shear an Lift.

While not an ideal setup, there at least appears to be multiple chase opportunities over the next few days in CO/KS/OK and TX and that sure beats what I was seeing earlier in the week and last weekend. So I'll be taking a crack at some forecasts over the next few days as well. (Please feel free to DM constructive critique and corrections.)

 

[Warren Faidley]

Likely need to add TX to the title. Models are truly struggling with the set-up for today. Believe the DL is placed way too far east in the TX Panhandle by 23Z. Odds are that the massive cap will hold, but I believe there is 20-30% chance it will break in the Panhandle before dark. I've seen this set-up time and time again, 3,000 CAPES with 30kts bulk shear and a single storm will defy the odds.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Would likely target NE CO if I was in the region. Looks better than further south.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Well for the first time ever, one of my forecasts verified. I bagged three tornadoes today in Colorado. One S of Willard, one S and W of Akron and another to the S and E of Akron. These are my first tornadoes ever in Colorado.

Unfortunately due to a complex and confusing road network and my adrenaline, I got disoriented and ended up driving right through the tornado. Thank GOD it was a very weak tornado.

Currently I am on a behemoth of a supercell near Holly, CO.

I'll have reports later. Not sure if tomorrow or after the weekend but I have lots of vids and pics.

Holy cow what a day!