Jesse Risley
Staff member
A negatively tilted trough will move across the upper midwest with the 500 mb low centered over the upper Mississippi Valley by late afternoon. The 500 mb jet core overspreads a region from the mid-Mississippi River valley into western Appalachia by late afternoon. The elongated and gradually weakening area of low pressure moves from N MO/S IA into the Wabash River valley by late this afternoon. A warm front appears juxtaposed from around S IA to E TN and will shift ESE somewhat as the corresponding area of low pressure drifts to the SE during the day with a notable MCV or surface low pressure area evident across NC MO. A trailing cold front will shift eastward towards the Mississippi River through late afternoon. Morning convection across what will become the open warm sector later today should continue to exit to the east and diminish with time. Forecast CAMs are showing renewed development ahead of the cold front this afternoon withs several rounds of more intense storms likely especially across southern portions of the convective risk area namely south of the Ohio River valley. Initial activity does look semi-discrete and two focus areas are of note.
The best MUCAPE parameters lie in a corridor from S MO into N LA and eastward into the western lower Mississippi River valley towards central TN (risk area 1). However, a tongue of unstable CAPE wraps back into the triple point area into WC IL extending into S IN as well (risk area 2). Bulk shear profiles corresponding with ample speed and directional shear favor all modes of severe weather with the best instability parameters and streamwise vorticity profiles based on forecast skew-T/Log-P profiles overlapping across portions of the south (risk area 1) where the best tornadic potential exists depending on evolution of ongoing convection presently working east of the Mississippi River from N MS into W KY. Something to watch will be the degree of destabilization and remnant boundaries associated with ongoing convection. The low pressure area across the northern sections of the risk area 2 will also be one to watch as there is plenty of vorticity, additional remnant boundaries with ongoing TSRA there, and the presence of some potential surface heating later today as well as noted with current vis sat trends north of the Ohio River. It looks to be another active with storms trending into a mixed QLCS mode this evening as they progress eastward.
The best MUCAPE parameters lie in a corridor from S MO into N LA and eastward into the western lower Mississippi River valley towards central TN (risk area 1). However, a tongue of unstable CAPE wraps back into the triple point area into WC IL extending into S IN as well (risk area 2). Bulk shear profiles corresponding with ample speed and directional shear favor all modes of severe weather with the best instability parameters and streamwise vorticity profiles based on forecast skew-T/Log-P profiles overlapping across portions of the south (risk area 1) where the best tornadic potential exists depending on evolution of ongoing convection presently working east of the Mississippi River from N MS into W KY. Something to watch will be the degree of destabilization and remnant boundaries associated with ongoing convection. The low pressure area across the northern sections of the risk area 2 will also be one to watch as there is plenty of vorticity, additional remnant boundaries with ongoing TSRA there, and the presence of some potential surface heating later today as well as noted with current vis sat trends north of the Ohio River. It looks to be another active with storms trending into a mixed QLCS mode this evening as they progress eastward.
