2025-04-28 EVENT: IA/KS/OK/MO/NE/MN/WI/IL

[JamesCaruso]

I will add this: this was my first out-of-state chase in five years. At first, I bought the SPC outlooks. Then I started detailed forecasting at 48 hours and began to wonder: what are they seeing? I don't see a MDT Risk. At 24 and 12 hours, the models mostly settled on one solution (for the target area): a line of storms crossing southern MN. The models did well. The forecasters? Not so much. I don't know why. I'm sure they're wondering that too. The moral? The atmosphere can and will surprise. Forecasters are human. Ce le vie.

I am sure others will disagree with me - in fact, @Mike Smith did in this very thread - but I have never seen SPC back off or downgrade a forecast. Do not interpret this as a criticism of their forecasting *ability*. This is a commentary on their public communication of forecasts - it appears to me that they are heavily biased toward maintaining forecast continuity regarding the worst case scenario, even when they know full well the parameters are not verifying.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I've seen them downgrade tornado risk from 10% to 5% (and 15% to 10%, etc.), cut back on the area size or shift it elsewhere but I don't know that I've seen them make a total shift from say, a moderate to an enhanced or slight.

I'm sure the thought process of being over-forecasted and the event underperforming is much more preferred than under-forecasting and the event overperforming.