Patrick K
EF0
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will eject from the Rockies on Sunday and move toward the upper midwest by Monday evening. As a result, mid 60s DPs will already be in place in terms of northward extent on Sunday. On Monday, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from the associated surface low through extreme southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and into central Oklahoma. Significant capping will exist over much of the area during the day until a shortwave trough begins impinging on the warm sector over the Iowa area by the afternoon. CAMs are not yet in range, but there will not be a sharp cold front until Tuesday, so the capping and more subtle forcing from the shortwave and dryline should result in widely spaced supercells, and storm motion will be closer to perpendicular to the dryline than parallel.
Current forecasts have surface winds struggling to back from the S or SSE, at least initially over the main target - but SRH should in theory be enough to get it done. It seems possible that cloud cover could limit instability and prevent storm initiation until much later, but the potential target area is large enough that it seems likely storms will fire somewhere. Currently it looks like the best chance of storms will be in IA, where mid 60s DPs will sit directly underneath the strongest portion of the jet streak. Another potential target will exist in eastern KS and northwest MO, through north central OK where upper 60s DPs will result in more extreme instability and where some models hint at better surface wind backing. Given the location and setup, this will likely be a busy chase day and fortunately the target area right now looks fairly broad. Stay safe out there everyone!
Current forecasts have surface winds struggling to back from the S or SSE, at least initially over the main target - but SRH should in theory be enough to get it done. It seems possible that cloud cover could limit instability and prevent storm initiation until much later, but the potential target area is large enough that it seems likely storms will fire somewhere. Currently it looks like the best chance of storms will be in IA, where mid 60s DPs will sit directly underneath the strongest portion of the jet streak. Another potential target will exist in eastern KS and northwest MO, through north central OK where upper 60s DPs will result in more extreme instability and where some models hint at better surface wind backing. Given the location and setup, this will likely be a busy chase day and fortunately the target area right now looks fairly broad. Stay safe out there everyone!
