2025-04-27 EVENT: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Dan Robinson]

The obvious beacon for chasers today is the dryline bulge in northwestern Kansas into southwest Nebraska. Hodographs are absolutely pristine in these areas. The thermos are the issue: the warm nose on 06z models is much less pronounced than it was in earlier runs, but still substantial. Earlier it looked hopeless, now it's getting closer to coin flip territory. A secondary play down into the Texas panhandle also has classic wind profiles and even greater instability, but with much more hopeless-looking warm nose.

What a classic chase dilemma this day is. 6 to 11 hours away for most chasers. Volatile environment at/after 00z. RRFS showing supercells. Most other models (HRRR, RAP, GFS, NAM, Euro, NAM NEST, etc) showing not even a blip. The way these things usually go is that the other CAMs will suddenly start convecting around noon or shortly thereafter - and by 18z they'll all be showing supercells. By then, anyone more than 3 hours away will be pulling their hair out in despair. Then, we'll see initiation at 00z with maximum distress of chasers who stayed home, followed by the narrow updrafts slowly shriveling and vanishing by 8pm to the no-go chasers' relief and to the chagrin of those who left at 6am and drove all day to get there. Truly a coin flip between that and the inverse: simply a case of picking which one of the bad endings of those two options would be more tolerable (16-hour blue sky bust vs missing the event of the year).

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Yep. 100% chance of regret no matter what you choose to do today. Which is unfortunate because those hodos are exactly what you look for when you want an enjoyable chase.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

HRRR currently says nope. 3k Nam says maybe northern Kansas, while SPC going with a slight and 5% overall. I have my grandsons birthday party on the schedule today as well (although we pre-celebrated with him just in case).

If I don't chase, guarantee of somewhere going bonkers. If I do chase (not even sure where since I'm at home), a bust is imminent.

If I stay home you can thank me later.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Throwing CAMs out the window, halfway in the hope that they're just wrong about the lack of CI. I'm in WaKeeney. Two areas of cumulus to watch, one at Goodland and another north-south of Elkhart. The warm sector is awfully narrow in the northern area - fearing a storm will outrun it if one manages to get going there. 70s DPs are just upstream of SW Kansas and might make it there after 00z. CAMs have been consistent in the Sandhills, but that's out of play for someone like me committed to Kansas. Feeling the pull to go south, but not wanting to give up on McCook area yet.

 

[Dan Robinson]

And, Kansas is toast. Heading north to see if the Sandhills action will provide some structure+lightning (maybe tornado) ops. Some cirrus streaming over the region may signal some additional upper support arriving, so keeping one eye on the dryline to the immediate west/southwest. No model support for that, however. Texas panhandle is on the verge of epic-ness with CI seemingly imminent there.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Good play Dan. The tornado north west of Hyannis looks like it's been on the ground for about 45 minutes and is a large wedge.