Jeff House
Supporter
I have to agree with SPC considering 10% tornado probs. 13Z is still 5%. Upper levels don't have a whole lot of turning, but there is just enough. CAPE is just-in-time (JIT) hence it'll be late, perhaps at dark. Believe along the boundary just east of the TP could produce.
Normally not a fan of JIT set-ups, but this one could surprise up like Sunday. Boundary along the Red River is forecast to lift to at least Kansas by evening. Surface low in northwest Kansas should have enough of a trough down into southeast Kansas and the OK PH. Said boundary should line up east of the trough, setting up boundary intersection in southwest Kansas. Threat includes adjacent northwest Oklahoma.
Indeed mid-levels will be slow to cool. When they do, enough instability should allow convection to blossom. I'd like to see more turning 850-500 mb. However low level turning could get the job done around the boundary intersection, with just enough SRH there. It's a quasi-triple point, if a meso-low can develop down there south of the synoptic low.
Obviously I did not travel for today. However it's a local chase day. That far west visibility should be OK toward dusk. Be careful after dark or bail and watch the WS.
Normally not a fan of JIT set-ups, but this one could surprise up like Sunday. Boundary along the Red River is forecast to lift to at least Kansas by evening. Surface low in northwest Kansas should have enough of a trough down into southeast Kansas and the OK PH. Said boundary should line up east of the trough, setting up boundary intersection in southwest Kansas. Threat includes adjacent northwest Oklahoma.
Indeed mid-levels will be slow to cool. When they do, enough instability should allow convection to blossom. I'd like to see more turning 850-500 mb. However low level turning could get the job done around the boundary intersection, with just enough SRH there. It's a quasi-triple point, if a meso-low can develop down there south of the synoptic low.
Obviously I did not travel for today. However it's a local chase day. That far west visibility should be OK toward dusk. Be careful after dark or bail and watch the WS.
