2021-03-16 EVENT: OK/AR/TX

[Brian McKibben]

I am slightly intrigued by the nocturnal event setting up today. Currently, there are 60 Tds near the DFW metroplex.

HiRes models show mediocre moisture advection into Oklahoma throughout the day. But by this evening we see much more robust advection, with 60 Tds widespread in OK by 09z per the RAP.

Had this event been 12 hours earlier or later, we would have likely seen a very good setup. But since it appears the best ingredients will come together in the overnight hours, there is a lot of uncertainty.

Area wide forecast soundings from HRRR (via TropicalTidbits) shows that the SBCinh weakens around 09z for central Oklahoma. A decent environment is in place with SBCAPE of 1500 and MLCAPE > 2000.

It will be interesting to see what the CAMS spit out on today's 12z runs. Will discrete supercells develop late this evening? Will it be more of a qlcs event?

Thoughts?

Also included TX and AR for some potential prefrontal warm sector convection potential.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am watching this event closely from Tulsa, OK. The area in the vicinity of the surface low may have a decent shot at surface based convection overnight. Any supercell rooted in the boundary layer may become tornadic, however there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether or not this will happen. Another area may be along the warm front in the Ark-La-Tex region as strong height falls lead to ascent across the area. Again, had this been better timed, a significant severe weather episode would have been in the cards for the southern plains.

 

[Brian McKibben]

18z 3km NAM is painting a very curious scenario in NW TX and SW Okla. A round of supercells predicted to fire up around 00z. If this does happen I would be intrigued the southern most storm. It could potentially ride a corridor of low 60 Tds and a strengthening LLJ.

We do have some Cu developing near Lubbock... so maybe this isn't too far fetched.