Brian McKibben
EF3
I am slightly intrigued by the nocturnal event setting up today. Currently, there are 60 Tds near the DFW metroplex.
HiRes models show mediocre moisture advection into Oklahoma throughout the day. But by this evening we see much more robust advection, with 60 Tds widespread in OK by 09z per the RAP.
Had this event been 12 hours earlier or later, we would have likely seen a very good setup. But since it appears the best ingredients will come together in the overnight hours, there is a lot of uncertainty.
Area wide forecast soundings from HRRR (via TropicalTidbits) shows that the SBCinh weakens around 09z for central Oklahoma. A decent environment is in place with SBCAPE of 1500 and MLCAPE > 2000.
It will be interesting to see what the CAMS spit out on today's 12z runs. Will discrete supercells develop late this evening? Will it be more of a qlcs event?
Thoughts?
Also included TX and AR for some potential prefrontal warm sector convection potential.
![latest.tdew.png](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mesonet.org%2Fdata%2Fpublic%2Fnoaa%2Fmetar%2Fmaps%2Frealtime%2Flatest.tdew.png%3Fcache_bust%3D1615900582653&hash=9d7b20e3a8310f983ed5da6655c3b30d)
HiRes models show mediocre moisture advection into Oklahoma throughout the day. But by this evening we see much more robust advection, with 60 Tds widespread in OK by 09z per the RAP.
![RAPSGP_sfc_dewp_024.png](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fclimate.cod.edu%2Fdata%2Fforecast%2FRAP%2F2021031609%2FSGP%2FRAPSGP_sfc_dewp_024.png&hash=a122466da3627e6468d9d8f2db06be60)
Had this event been 12 hours earlier or later, we would have likely seen a very good setup. But since it appears the best ingredients will come together in the overnight hours, there is a lot of uncertainty.
Area wide forecast soundings from HRRR (via TropicalTidbits) shows that the SBCinh weakens around 09z for central Oklahoma. A decent environment is in place with SBCAPE of 1500 and MLCAPE > 2000.
It will be interesting to see what the CAMS spit out on today's 12z runs. Will discrete supercells develop late this evening? Will it be more of a qlcs event?
Thoughts?
Also included TX and AR for some potential prefrontal warm sector convection potential.