Dan Robinson
EF5
As a shortwave begins to dig across the central USA tomorrow, 60kt+ westerly/SSW flow aloft will overspread a warm sector featuring dewpoints past the 60F mark into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys in a threat area not very dissimlar to the one on March 2nd. Each successive model run has pushed the warm sector tomorrow farther north, with a warm front along the I-70/I-64 corridors in Missouri and Illinois by storm time. A broad surface low in response to the digging trough aloft will form in western/central Missouri and help to back surface winds, yielding 0-1km SRH peaking in excess of 400 within the warm sector and along the warm front. Modest lapse rates supporting strong updrafts in this environment will favor supercells throughout the warm sector from as early as noon through the overnight hours.
I'm obviously most interested in the warm front tomorrow, but very early convection (possibly before noon) along the boundary may turn that zone into a mess. Low-level SRH really peaks down in the bootheel region, though that area may not fire until closer to sunset and the storms may rapidly exit the narrow good chase terrain before racing into the hills of western Kentucky and Tennessee.
I'm obviously most interested in the warm front tomorrow, but very early convection (possibly before noon) along the boundary may turn that zone into a mess. Low-level SRH really peaks down in the bootheel region, though that area may not fire until closer to sunset and the storms may rapidly exit the narrow good chase terrain before racing into the hills of western Kentucky and Tennessee.
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