Dan Robinson
EF5
A couple of fall season events to watch and possibly chase for many of us in the Plains and Midwest this week. Models have generally increased instability across the board for tomorrow's 100kt+ jet streak moving across the Ozarks, with some areas showing 1,000+ of MLCAPE. NAM, GFS, Euro and the CAMs are in general agreement on timing and placement of features and storms, with model-to-model differences mostly on the order of only 1 to 3 hours. Directional shear and midlevel lapse rates are meager, but this is made up big time with very strong speed shear regionwide. Low-level lapse rate quality will be contingent on any cloud breaks, which may be hard to come by given the amount of lift moving across the region.
The main chasing challenges of this event are post-sunset storm organization, very fast storm speeds and unfavorable terrain/roads. The left exit region of the jet will likely make mid-Missouri the preferred target, providing meaningful instability is realized that far north. The best case scenario is if we can get the better moisture and a few cloud breaks during the afternoon along and north of I-70, as the options for roads and views are much better in that region. A possible strategy may be to move east on I-70 through the evening, intercepting storms as they cross the highway. The storm speeds may make even a straight interstate chase difficult.
My current thinking given model portrayals of this event is a starting target of Sedalia, MO, moving east back toward St. Louis to catch individual updrafts as they cross the highway. The risk of falling behind will be high however, and one may need to position farther east to await sufficient storm organization.
The main chasing challenges of this event are post-sunset storm organization, very fast storm speeds and unfavorable terrain/roads. The left exit region of the jet will likely make mid-Missouri the preferred target, providing meaningful instability is realized that far north. The best case scenario is if we can get the better moisture and a few cloud breaks during the afternoon along and north of I-70, as the options for roads and views are much better in that region. A possible strategy may be to move east on I-70 through the evening, intercepting storms as they cross the highway. The storm speeds may make even a straight interstate chase difficult.
My current thinking given model portrayals of this event is a starting target of Sedalia, MO, moving east back toward St. Louis to catch individual updrafts as they cross the highway. The risk of falling behind will be high however, and one may need to position farther east to await sufficient storm organization.