2019-04-13 EVENT: TX/AR/LA/MS/AL

[Kyle Whitley]

I tried to remain optimistic about being able to see something today, but that's going to be challenging I think. In Tallulah LA sitting in the Delta waiting for storms to come through here and the cloudbases look like I could touch them they are so low. The Delta is nice and clear of trees but I have no idea how anyone could see these anywhere else. At least Sim reflectivity on the HRRR is consistent, if messy.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Relevant information on flooding north of I-20 in MS:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1117031932188069888

 

[Drew Wales]

The only saving grace (for this South East Boy) is that once you break East of Monroe, there seems to be a good 100 mile stretch of pretty open country in the Mississippi Basin region, all the way to Yazoo City MS. I-20 looks clear(ish) and is a good E-W route but no real good N-S option until Monroe.

I've only chased in the South East US and never in LA - W Alabama is it, so I'm fairly worried about the topography there if I'm honest. I don't know that I can pass up a day like this though. Thank you for your insight Dan.

Welcome to Northeast Louisiana! We’re so awesome we drive 2.5 hours through MS to drive to New Orleans

 

[Jesse Risley]

So far it's looking a bit messier than anticipated, due to storms interacting with one another and being more linear. I was thinking perhaps the convection further east near the Mississippi River was going to be more discrete, which may have offered the benefit of both higher tornadic potential in higher visibility environment. As of right now, it might become more a matter of positioning oneself downstream of embedded convection in the lines. Given progged SRH values ahead of the ongoing convection, I'd expect some of those cells to start exhibiting more substantial low level rotation with time.

 

[Jeff House]

The Delta southwest of Yazoo City was indeed more of a swamp. It seemed like a mess as far north as Greenwood too. We thought the WF might get hung up on I-20. However, per rules with fast moving storms, we hedged north to start. That's how we got the north-south tour of the Delta from US-45 to I-20. Nothing to report, so will keep in Event thread.

We cautiously approached the Vicksburg cell on US-49E until Yazoo City. We could have made it to Flora; but, elected to bail east on Hwy-16 before approaching Flora from the east on Hwy-22. Going direct seemed risky. While storm motion indicated an easy win, we don't race HP supercells if there is even 1% doubt. My main point is more discussion than report; hence, I write below in Event.

Few years back I had a close call racing a supercell in OK. Got caught in the hail core, just north of the rotation. Despite 20 yrs chase experience, fully aware of 5-10 min. old radar images, I elected to race it in a 50/50 situation. When I returned home from the trip my young daughter gave me the biggest bear hug to-date. She does not know the story, but she was happy I was home.

Back to present: She gave me a particularly tight hug before departing this chase trip. Again, too young to understand Dixie Alley, but I remembered it while we rolled down US-49. Race it, or go cautious? The choice was clear to be cautious.

There will be other opportunities, in the Plains. May is coming!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

There will be other opportunities, in the Plains. May is coming!

Yeah, that's what we all said last year...

Your analysis in the other thread about the lackluster storms for a 15% hatched MDT being due to the lack of turning above about somewhere between 850-700mb and 500mb (poor low-level lapse rates and too-numerous storms didn't help) seems spot-on to me. I was noticing that on the forecast soundings in the days leading up to the event and mentioned it as a caveat on another forum where many people were talking up doomsday tornado outbreak.

SPC seems to have finally caught on to this regime we're in this decade where if the atmosphere can find a failure mode for an insane parameter space, it will; and rightly held off on the high risk/PDS watches. Heck, if I was them based on the weakness in the wind profile and the pretty strong CAM signal for cluttered/closely spaced storms, I might have held off on the MDT altogether and gone with a 10 hatched Enhanced risk.

 

[Jeff House]

Holding off on high was great. Saturday had potential so I liked MDT. Warm front and/or prefrontal trough could have provided low level turning if the instability was higher.

I found the 70/60 watch interesting. Seems SPC knew it's all or nothing Delta. HRRR had Vicksburg and Starkville. Otherwise the NAM was right to crap on the setup.