2019-03-25 EVENT: AR/TN/MS/MO/IL

[MikeD]

Well, everyone’s seen this coming from a long ways away. A weakening trough moving into the mid-south late Sunday night/Monday morning. Forecast models show CAPE around 500 J/kg in southwestern TN and all throughout MS. Hybrid goalpost sounding in AR late Sunday evening. Standard shear of around 50kts at anvil levels but weaker shear at lower levels. Look like neither speed shear nor directional. From three days away, it seems like a minor event (a morning one, I might add) that might not produce anything worthwhile.

Lots more insight tomorrow when NAM Hires comes within range.

 

[James Gustina]

The angle of that cold front per the 00Z GFS/Euro/NAM is definitely not encouraging in terms of the shear profiles relative to storm motion. Last night's 00Z NAM run had slightly higher MLCAPE values than I expected draped across a corridor from east-central Texas up through Shrevport on the order of 700-800 j/kg. The temperature profiles in that east Texas/west Louisiana region don't look terrible, albeit a bit saturated, but there's a distinct weakness between 700 mb and 850 mb with the associated VBV that just hinders the shear profiles even further. The area and general issues with the timing/cold front make this one that I don't think I'd consider biting on.