2018-11-05 Event: LA, AR, MS, AL, TN

[Clarence Bennett]

The signal has been showing up for a few days now for a significant SE event early next week. I don't see any point in hashing out details this early, but one look at 500mb and 850mb is enough to get me on board. Unfortunately, it looks like the worst of this will occur overnight and into the morning of 11/6.

 

[I MacDaniel]

I definitely agree on timing. I was planning on monitoring and tweeting live updates on school newspaper Twitter platform to keep the students and staff updated on the event, but that probably means an afternoon nap and coffee/ caffeinated tea, perhaps monster drinks. The timing really sucks because I bet most students would be sleeping then.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

There are a couple of things that have me scratching my head about this setup, mainly that the normally over-bullish 3KM NAM is rather subdued with the sim ref./updraft helicity Monday afternoon through the overnight. Unless that changes, I'm not confident this will be as significant as the Euro had it looking a few days ago.

 

[Spencer Dant]

Instability is trending downward but Dixie Alley has a way of finding enough instability when there shouldn't be any. Projected widespread 60-70 knot 850s throughout the night in Tennessee and Mississippi are concerning. I'm hopeful that it doesn't end up being as significant as it initially appeared, though. Lots of trailer parks and generally unprepared people are in its path, as is the case with every Dixie Alley outbreak scenario.

 

[I MacDaniel]

This is an interesting event to watch, but it could end up as bust or a significant event depending on instability and timing. So far, it seems to be damaging winds and some tornadoes as main concerns. I definitely agree on preparedness and trailer parks. I’m not a big fan of nocturnal events, so I’m planning on getting some Java Monster drink for tonight.

 

[Jeff House]

Event is looking less like a super cell laden tornado outbreak. QLCS tornadoes are certainly on the table.

As I type elevated convection is in progress over Arkansas. Late this afternoon it should become rooted and/or new stronger storms will develop in the Mid South and Delta including around Memphis. Those may be messy, but the only chance of a daytime chase.

Rain should reach Nashville with late afternoon daylight, but I doubt those leading thundershowers will be significant into BNA.

Appears the line actually strengthens into the evening hours after dark from Middle Tenn back into Mississippi; then, moving into North Alabama. Should be more straight line wind. May be a few QLCS tornadoes.

Looks like JIT moisture and perhaps not juxtaposed with the best dynamics; so, maybe Dixie can avoid a night time mauler. Toward 00Z the short-wave trough punches across with vigor; but, then heights almost go neutral overnight (vs falling). Explains some warmer mid-level forecasts. Dixie at night can overcome all that with a forced line. Just does not look like a big tornado outbreak - thankfully.

No plans to chase. Still great to join a discussion with Mid South and Tennessee members. Be safe overnight. Good luck to anyone chasing.

 

[Mike Z]

Supercells in Eastern Texas and North Louisiana. Seems like the convective outlook wasn't very accurate. The red zone should've been shifted South. I'm not even well experienced with all this, but I thought the South would get it worse when I read about this yesterday.

 

[Jeff House]

Early Monday evening action in Louisiana was the atmosphere tipping its hand. Indeed enough dynamics were far enough south with instability. One could also infer some instability (theta E) would advect north (MS/AL/TN). Tennessee winds and dews rallied strong Monday evening.

Severe reports caught up with the Enhanced Risk overnight. In fact we had many wind reports over in East Tenn. Louisiana had the most photogenic tornado of the day; but, the coverage of reports matches Slight. I would say the biggest adjustment could have been bringing ENH farther east. However I was skeptical of that QLCS maintenance after Midnight myself; so, I cannot really say much. I enjoyed the storms in Chattanooga though!

 

[Ethan Lang]

Interesting event last night. According to the NWS as of now there has been 8 confirmed tornadoes. There has been some significant damage coming out of Louisiana and I heard of one death in Mississippi. Many of these tornadoes occurred to the south of the enhanced so a lot of SPC chasers lost out. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...t-continues-in-louisiana-mississippi/70006505

 

[Jacob Parrish]

Interesting event last night. According to the NWS as of now there has been 8 confirmed tornadoes. There has been some significant damage coming out of Louisiana and I heard of one death in Mississippi. Many of these tornadoes occurred to the south of the enhanced so a lot of SPC chasers lost out. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...t-continues-in-louisiana-mississippi/70006505

I was particularly upset with the coverage in Mississippi... I was at work and watched the cell that produced the eventual Lee County (Tupelo) EF2 tornado go right over Pontotoc County with a intense velocity couplet, no one ever issued a tornado warning, and it eventually touched down right on the county line. This cell came right over Pontotoc City. The only reason a warning got issued was a debris signature was picked up. Im just curious why this wasn't kept at a warning state throughout the cycle, as they had warnings issues as the storm was south west of us.

Edit: This is by no means a criticism of WTVA or any local news. Their power was out and he was live streaming on a phone. He correctly identified what was going on and was wondering himself why no warning was issued, and told people in Pontotoc to seek shelter anyway.

 

[Ethan Lang]

The hrrr showed small lima bean shaped cells moving through central Louisiana that day and I would say that it validated perfectly.