2018-10-13 EVENT: TX

[Marc Gebhard]

As of 6 in the evening today Friday, the NAM is putting the Significant Tornado Potential pretty high tomorrow just south of the DFW metro area around 18 Z Saturday. HRRR also seems to be showing some pretty juicy situations. Does anyone else see this? I'm thinking head southwest of DFW tomorrow early---things could fire up by noon or so.

 

[Randy Jennings]

Seeing the bright colors for STP, curved hodos, SRH of 400+, and PDS TOR forecast soundings has me excited, then the lack of a single analog brings me back to reality. Picking the forecast soundings apart shows lapse rates that are marginal and there could be issues in the mid levels. Morning convection might be an issue and a possible linear storm mode will not be as much fun. Having said that, I think if you are within reasonable distance from the target area you go - I'll be out there tommrow myself. If you pick apart every model run you will never leave your couch and will miss everything. Just go in with low expectations and then you might be supprised.