Brandon Centeno
EF1
Well, it's been quiet around here, but things are looking up tomorrow. I will precede this post with a word of caution: Once you enter the summer, or a summer-like pattern (what we have now), if you're going to chase south of I-70, you need to accept and come to terms with the fact that you're likely going to deal with challenging T/Td spreads 95% of the time if you aren't in the High Plains. Once the jet departs northward and the 850/700 mb temps begin to rise, you have the issue: convective temps rise, and while this can be mitigated by better moisture.. Moisture in the gulf tends to top out in the mid 70s. It is difficult to get low-mid 70s to advect northward, and especially so when the kinematics just aren't there... like is the case post-spring.
So I say that because tomorrow is a summer-like event for the south/central Plains, and your expectations should be appropriate. That said, I've very quickly taken a liking to a specific target. Before I get to that one, let's talk about the general layout.
The general upper air pattern will be a slow-moving cyclone over the central/west US. A strong subtropical upper level jet will slowly weaken throughout the period. Glancing/subtle height falls and large scale ascent will encourage the weakening of a cap over a moderate-strongly unstable airmass over the central and southern Plains. Storm coverage will be most in the Kansas area, along a dry line/lee trough and perhaps aided by outflow. Here, inverted V soundings and strongly/well-mixed boundary layer will likely lead to rapid cold pool amalgamation and a southeastward propagating MCS/cluster as a moist low level jet begins to develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Potential play here would be any outflow that remains evident in the later afternoon hours, but tendency for strong cold pool development seems too likely for me to want to play here. See SPC enhanced for wind damage.
The target of interest, in my opinion, will be the SW OK vicinity. Here, influence from the left exit region of the aforementioned jet, and perhaps small perturbations in the WSWly flow will lead to pressure falls in vicinity of the Childress area, possibly aided by strong heating. The response should be locally enhanced wind shear and lift in the SW OK vicinity. CAMs depict discrete/sparse coverage/mode this way, and forecast soundings would suggest potential for very large hail and a small window for a tornado or two. Boundary layer moisture quality should be maximized here in terms of depth as well. Potential will exist for outflow to modulate this region as well, although this seems unlikely.
Currently, although this will depend on nearer-term trends, my plan is to depart mid-morning for the dryline near the SW OK/TX border.
So I say that because tomorrow is a summer-like event for the south/central Plains, and your expectations should be appropriate. That said, I've very quickly taken a liking to a specific target. Before I get to that one, let's talk about the general layout.
The general upper air pattern will be a slow-moving cyclone over the central/west US. A strong subtropical upper level jet will slowly weaken throughout the period. Glancing/subtle height falls and large scale ascent will encourage the weakening of a cap over a moderate-strongly unstable airmass over the central and southern Plains. Storm coverage will be most in the Kansas area, along a dry line/lee trough and perhaps aided by outflow. Here, inverted V soundings and strongly/well-mixed boundary layer will likely lead to rapid cold pool amalgamation and a southeastward propagating MCS/cluster as a moist low level jet begins to develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Potential play here would be any outflow that remains evident in the later afternoon hours, but tendency for strong cold pool development seems too likely for me to want to play here. See SPC enhanced for wind damage.
The target of interest, in my opinion, will be the SW OK vicinity. Here, influence from the left exit region of the aforementioned jet, and perhaps small perturbations in the WSWly flow will lead to pressure falls in vicinity of the Childress area, possibly aided by strong heating. The response should be locally enhanced wind shear and lift in the SW OK vicinity. CAMs depict discrete/sparse coverage/mode this way, and forecast soundings would suggest potential for very large hail and a small window for a tornado or two. Boundary layer moisture quality should be maximized here in terms of depth as well. Potential will exist for outflow to modulate this region as well, although this seems unlikely.
Currently, although this will depend on nearer-term trends, my plan is to depart mid-morning for the dryline near the SW OK/TX border.
