2017-04-14 EVENT: CO/KS/NE

[David Mayhew]

I don't really have high hopes for eastern Colorado tomorrow, will have to look at the models in the morning, but I do like my Theta-E axes. With the winds backing at 0z Saturday and drawing moisture towards the Denver Convergence zone moisture is progged to reach 45-50F in far East CO which is certainly sufficient as the cold front moves in from the north.

NE CO at 21Z Fri shows a decent curved hodo with SRH 179m2/s2 on GFS. But CAPE is poor, under 1000J/KG. Surprisingly strong CAP for this time of year with 700mb temps reaching 11C south of the front which hopefully will delay initiation, but creating 500-700mb lapse rates of 20-24C. Keeping an open mind tomorrow.

 

[David Mayhew]

Sure can do J. I think at this point anything that happens might be north of you, thinking Brush and east, though NAM has no precip outbreaking at this point and GFS suggests Fort Collins/Greeley, which is not in the most dynamic set up. Will see what HRRR suggests tomorrow. I'm keen just to try out my new laptop etc as "dry" run!

Intrigued by the Tapatalk app you are using, can you use that to follow the Target Area forum here?

 

[Paul Knightley]

I would love to be out there on a fairly marginal set-up, not too many on the road, and wide open spaces! I think I'd start in Guymon, and see what happens. HRRR develops stuff more to the south, along some kind of pre-dryline confluence zone - a better defined dryline should be present in W KS, as the glancing blow from the upper trough to the north pushes some stronger mid-level flow through. SW KS could see something from the Raton Ridge moving east. Thus, being in between the two possibilities to start, and then refine as (if!) stuff develops would be my idea.

I appreciate OK and TX are not in the title of this thread, but I guess it makes sense to have everything within the same thread.

 

[David Mayhew]

If we do see more posts on OK/TX I can add that to the title.
As for CO this morning I won't be heading out. Looks like the cold front surges south fairly early in the afternoon pushing the moisture back east. None of the models, including HRRR, show any precip breaking out either.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Congrats on the chasers that took a shot on today in Far Western Texas. Intense cyclic tornadic supercell in progress right now NW of Dimmitt, TX. I've been watching live streams and counted at least 4 tornadoes so far, including one point with 2 at once. Can't wait to hear everyone's reports!!!