2017-04-01 EVENT: TX/OK

[Ben Holcomb]

A weekend setup, which is the only reason I feel this warrants a thread. SPC has included a slight risk and storms seem probable, but the wave seems mostly mistimed for bigger severe weather. The 12Z NAM today showed a very narrow instability axis and moisture issues. I will be interested in seeing the 00Z raobs tonight.

Nonetheless, I feel like it could be worth a try chasing, especially down near Abilene.

 

[Matt Hunt]

My expectations aren't very high for today, but it's only a little under 3 hours to Abilene for me, so I may head out west a little later. 12z NAM Nest shows 64° dewpoint in Abilene at 22-23z. HRRR is not as optimistic, but showing over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. There's very little SRH, however, and the cold front will likely undercut storms and quickly turn things linear. My only purpose of going would be to shoot some time lapse, and lightning after dark. I don't expect there to be any tornadoes today, outside of maybe a brief bird fart.