• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2015-06-20 EVENT: IA,IL,WI,MN,MO

Jared Stenerson

Enthusiast
Joined
Dec 1, 2014
Messages
1
Saturday is starting to look interesting. With a jet streak sitting over southern WI/Northern IL there should be sufficient forcing for ascent in the right entrance region in eastern Iowa. Also have a 850 mb LLJ of 30-40 knots progged to be over the SE half of Iowa. These combined should make for 0-3km SRH values in the 200-300 range. Add this to the possibility of 3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE and it could be a decent day. Will probably play the outflow boundary from the early convection in MN.
 
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Im not a huge fan of the overall surface pattern, as latest guidance seems to shunt critical surface convergence/features further into SE IA with a more diffuse surface low. Nevertheless, strong instability looks possible as long as Bill remnants don't cut off the good return juice after a cold front slides through the region tonight. Available speed shear is impressive for this time of year though, and with forecast cape values near extreme levels. A potential outflow boundary could serve as a focus for renewed development and given the strong speed shear I would except a pretty intense line of storms to move south/southeastward across eastern Iowa and perhaps into Western/Northern Illinois.

Not seeing much in the way of supercell potential given the largely unidirectional shear, but with an outflow boundary and high CAPE anything is possible. I plan to be out.
 
Obviously the instability is looking great per the latest 00Z NAM with 5000 J/KG of CAPE in Southern Iowa/Northern Missouri. The 500mb flow is actually quite nice, especially for this time of year.

As Adam touched on, the surface pattern leaves a lot to be desired, and with a departing anvil level jet I wonder if there will be any negative effects, especially the further south you get. Nevertheless, it's a tempting day to take a drive up I-35, especially considering the double play (Sat & Sunday)
 
It's looking more and more like the cap will hold all day until evening and then spawn an MCS along the Missouri/Iowa/Illinois border regions. NAM seems to show really weird surface pattern and I am not sure if it just isn't handling it right, but if it verifies, surface winds start out great but by the time the cap breaks they weaken and veer. I was hoping that some of the other potential local setups would pan out next week, but those are looking worse and worse as after this weekend we basically are stuck with westerly 850s. I may go ahead and make a play Saturday out of desperation
 
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