2015-05-25 EVENT: TX, OK, KS, NE

[Brandon Lawson]

Seems a shame not to have a target thread today on one of the few moderate risks we've seen issued this year. Morning storms already in progress from Abilene to San Angelo with additional elevated junk northwest of Austin. Tornado warch in effect for much of northwest texas and southeast oklahoma.

Shortwave trough will be moving through the Southern Plains this afternoon atop a moderately unstable boundary layer. Dewpoints in the 70's will be encroached upon by a dryline draped across the west half of Texas.

Forecast and observed soundings show some mid-level weakness in winds, but overall deep-layer shear (40-45 knots) will be more than supportive of supercell structures within or ahead of already ongoing complex of the thunderstorms pushing in from the west by early to mid afternoon. Any development ahead of the line would also likely have the adavantage of storm motions near perpendicular to the dryline, assuming upscale growth doesnt line out everything.

Areas from south-central oklahoma into north-central texas and points eastward should see very large hail, high winds and tornadoes. Good luck to everyone chasing today and be safe. Roads are sure to be a mess with all the recent rains and more to come.

 

[Royce Sheibal]

Mods: Might I also suggest we had KS and NE to the list? SPC has added a 5% swatch for TORs up north, and the local NWS offices have tornadoes in their mention in the possibilities. I would be going out today, but both of my drivers are having car issues. It looks like for the N target, morning convection is gone, and most models are showing 2500-3000 cape possible from NC KS into E Neb. Shear is poop, but around 6-8pm when storms should fire, we get a sudden boost in helicity as the shortwave approaches. Storms motions are slow and should stay surface based. Cells should be discrete and if they can stay organized until 8pm or so, I think we've got a definite chance for some very large hail and TOR's up here.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Interesting event evolving across TX and S OK. Looks like the original MCS that fired near MAF early in the morning is maturing as it continues to shift northeastward with portions of it now entering SW OK and something of a LEWP forming W/NW/N of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. Also, obs from the WTM and radar velocities are indicating a wake low may be forming across NW TX/SW OK behind the northern portion of this asymmetric MCS. I wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing some high wind reports behind the precip.

Farther to the south and east, low level shear and ESRH are sufficient to start getting sig tors across C/S TX. Looks like there is a tornado ongoing WNW of Austin right now, and with CAPE increasing ahead of that batch of convection, I can see a more significant tornado threat persisting through the afternoon, provided storm mode remains at least somewhat cellular. Storm mode is getting a little messy in that area, but I could see things going one way or the other (dominantly linear or dominantly cellular).

 

[Jason Harris]

Since I didn't really do an "abnormal" effort today--just went up into a parking garage to get a look around--didn't put this in the reports thread. If I'm not mistaken, here's a multi-level lenticular cloud that appeared after the tumultuous line went south of the area.