Ugh. I'm really not a fan of "front-loaded" (really probably just positive tilt) troughs where the jet is on the lee side. Those systems just lift as they fly northeast rather than dig at all, meaning the good lift is usually limited to the far northern aspect of the target, possibly leaving areas with great thermodynamics completely capped off. Frankly I'm surprised we're not looking at a crashing cold front with this, but given it's located deep in the subtropical jet and is rather shallow in latitudinal extent, that probably explains the absence of really cold air at the low levels flying in behind this thing. However, I do think the shape of the wave is highly influencing the height patterns at the low levels, which frankly do not have me excited given the wind direction they indicate (see two paragraphs below).
I share the concerns of others who have posted on this thread. I don't think that any of these models has adequately captured all the necessary details to lock in the 36+ hour forecasts as gospel. However, I doubt we're going to see much change in the strength, shape, or location of the upper-level wave for this thing.
With that said, what bothers/frustrates me the most is the lack of backed flow in the low levels. I see little indication of any negative u-wind component just ahead of the dryline, even at the surface. Couple that with little veering to the SSW behind the dryline to result in only weak convergence at the dryline, which itself does not look to have much of a decent moisture gradient. Dryline setups tend to underperform when the good moisture doesn't make it right up against the dryline. This is probably the result of massive dry advection being progged at 850 mb throughout the day by both the NAM and GFS, which to me is the most disgusting aspect of this setup. The models have tamed this tendency a little over the past few days, but actually the 12Z NAM has a more westerly component to the 850 mb winds than the 12Z GFS over Oklahoma, and even drier air as well, which is a tendency in the wrong direction. This not only reduces moisture depth but also changes the shear profile by allowing some mixing of momentum down to the surface, causing slightly veered surface winds. The drying also probably mostly explains the general lack of tight moisture gradient along the dryline given the west-east gradient of moisture depth as dry air moves in from the west over decent surface moisture. This also results in faster storm motions, which are a concern to me. Not fun chasing 50+ kt storm speeds.
All of that uncertanity/discussion may be futile, however, if the forecasts for early-day convection across the southern portion of the target area verify. One big lesson I learned some years back when I was based out of Iowa and rarely chased southwest of Emporia was that early day convection south of your target area (even if by several hundred miles) almost certainly kills your target area to the north, for a few reasons:
1) Unless moisture is already in place before the southern convection develops, it blocks moisture return.
2) Unless you are lucky enough to get crystal clear skies for many hours during the day, it blocks warm air advection at the low levels.
3) Convection means clouds. Mesoscale convection means a widespread area of thick clouds which will almost certainly spread far enough north to reduce insolation and severely inhibit or reduce destabilization, making the first two points also pretty much pointless in this case.
I hope against hope at this point that there is some major detail that I either have wrong or that ends up being incorrectly forecast by the models. However, if these details verify, there looks to be only a very narrow window right along the warm front or triple point near I-70 in Kansas. At least that area is north of the 500 mb jet core, which would result in slower storm speeds (and less shear). But given the reduced CAPE, less shear may actually be a good thing in this case. Of course, see (3) above. Even if this is all that's left, I don't think it would be worth it to me to make the trip.
TL;DR: another crappy setup.