2015-04-23 EVENT: TX/CO/KS

[Jeremy Perez]

So, for whatever it's worth, a quick analysis of 17Z satellite/mesoanalysis for today from my virtual chasing armchair spot—

The cirrus canopy is one hindrance, but still forecast CAPE from 1500-2000 j/kg between the dryline bulge and surface front across north-central Texas. Virtually speaking, I'm looking at the vicinity of Aspermont, TX as one option with 50-70 kt bulk shear and 200+ m2/s2 SRH by mid-late afternoon, assuming initiation with the cirrus-filtered insolation.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

I guess I can hand out a golf clap to the multicell between Aspermont and Sweetwater now that it's managed to spit out a few lightning strikes. ...and teasing at some weak rotation from kdyx radar.

(Interesting that MD0428 has that surface boundary drawn a lot further south than I'd estimate—still a lot to learn. )

SPC Mesoanalysis suggests that the larger multicell by Killeen may not have the best SRH to deal with as the afternoon progresses. The northern storm would have better options if it doesn't die in the next 15 minutes & isn't north of the boundary as the SPC diagram suggests.