Royce Sheibal
EF3
Another day, another forecast, another possible moderate!
Yesterday the cap ended up breaking in NE and NW Nebraska, both making some serious multivortex producers. The RAP and HRRR failed yesterday on the NE NEB area, and will so again today. NAM and GFS agree on NE Neb (same as the last two days) being the hot spot. LI's are good, Cape is good, Shear is great again. Probably going to see day #3 of wedge tornadoes. Sadly I'm working again..so unless they pop closer to Omaha it's not happening. My target today would otherwise be Pender, NE to Sioux Falls.
Update: Northern SD filling in with typical upslope meso's. RAP is showing area in SE SD still the most prime for shear...but look downstream! Towers starting to form in W Kansas? Will the cap break along the dry line? I'm in Omaha looking at mid level cloud debris coming in from the southwest. The last two days there was notable non-Q low-mid clouds shooting north around noon-3pm from N KS into Central Neb and pointing toward our tornado cells. Anyone a cloud expert perhaps with some incite?
Yesterday the cap ended up breaking in NE and NW Nebraska, both making some serious multivortex producers. The RAP and HRRR failed yesterday on the NE NEB area, and will so again today. NAM and GFS agree on NE Neb (same as the last two days) being the hot spot. LI's are good, Cape is good, Shear is great again. Probably going to see day #3 of wedge tornadoes. Sadly I'm working again..so unless they pop closer to Omaha it's not happening. My target today would otherwise be Pender, NE to Sioux Falls.
Update: Northern SD filling in with typical upslope meso's. RAP is showing area in SE SD still the most prime for shear...but look downstream! Towers starting to form in W Kansas? Will the cap break along the dry line? I'm in Omaha looking at mid level cloud debris coming in from the southwest. The last two days there was notable non-Q low-mid clouds shooting north around noon-3pm from N KS into Central Neb and pointing toward our tornado cells. Anyone a cloud expert perhaps with some incite?
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