2014-06-17 FCST: NE/SD/MN/IA/WI/ND/WY/MT

[Royce Sheibal]

No forecasts for today posted yet so here we go! A quickie! Was spot on yesterday unfortunately.
Today has a similar setup to yesterday with insane CAPE and LI, however shear is not quite as bonkers. Yesterday initiation started around 3 and today might stay capped for a bit longer. Lack of forcing may be an issue to get the cap to break further west / southwest. My east target today would be Mankato, MN down to Mason City. May get some tors today, but with T-TD spreads this high on the south side, just feels like a bust day. If it wasn't for that i'd say Sioux City / Storm Lake would be good plays.
Out west in the black hills this looks like a pretty typical upslope situation, and would probably be a great chasing opportunity if you can get out there. Giant hail with a nice meso or two turning into an MCS later on.
Stay safe and enjoy the chase, I'll be at the gym.

 

[Logan Karsten]

in my opinion, today is a far cry from yesterday on so many fronts. 500 mb flow is barely 40 kts at 00Z this evening. Lack of forcing, and a plume of 14C 700 temps screams bust along the warm front to me. Even if something were to go up, I just don't see it lasting supercelluar for very long given the lack of deep layer shear.

 

[Todd Rector]

I feel compelled to go today if for no other reason than to mentally compensate for missing the event in Nebraska yesterday. (I headed toward Norfolk NE yesterday morning, but had to turn around because of issues at work - argh).

My target area is only 100 miles away, and I am going to head out shortly. If nothing else, the impending squall along the front will provide some good lightning pics on the way back home.