Rob H
EF5
Anyways, looking at MN for today, but not sure if I want to pull the trigger yet (thankfully I can make that decision later today since I'm so close). A shortwave trough is coming through the area, and a weak front draped over the top portion of MN with a low progged to travel along it will be the focus for storms later this afternoon. SPC has a 5% tor probability that roughly lines up with 5% sig tor ingredients on the latest SREF. Historically speaking (per SPC mesoanalysis Tornado Climatology) 1300 MLCAPE, 38kt eff. shear, and 169 eff. SRH are the median values to get things done in that area - coincidentally those are almost the exact values in that area between 22Z-01Z. This is possibly the most average and generic tornadic setup MN can experience 
Ongoing storms right now will reinforce the front, and possibly lay down some outflow boundaries that will help low level shear. 150 0-3km MLCAPE bullseye over Wheaton, MN is a welcome sign and suggests the presence of some low level instability that really helps in these marginal type setups.
One big problem is that much of the risk area is in thick forests and the road network pretty much sucks once you get near 94/the glacial ridge. That, combined with SBCAPE disappearing at sundown, makes me hope something pops and produces early, while you're still in the wetlands. If I do go out, I think I'd set up shop near Wheaton, MN - although I've never had a successful chase with that city as a target!
Ongoing storms right now will reinforce the front, and possibly lay down some outflow boundaries that will help low level shear. 150 0-3km MLCAPE bullseye over Wheaton, MN is a welcome sign and suggests the presence of some low level instability that really helps in these marginal type setups.
One big problem is that much of the risk area is in thick forests and the road network pretty much sucks once you get near 94/the glacial ridge. That, combined with SBCAPE disappearing at sundown, makes me hope something pops and produces early, while you're still in the wetlands. If I do go out, I think I'd set up shop near Wheaton, MN - although I've never had a successful chase with that city as a target!
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