2014-04-27 MISC: AR, KS, MO, OK

[Ashley]

What are everyone's thoughts on the yesterdays high risk? Did we dodge a bullet in the fact that despite the strong wording and parameters, there was really only one super strong cell with a violent tornado? Surprised there weren't more tornados?

I wouldn't say we dodged a bullet, not at all. We may have only had 1 extremely strong tornado, but we had alot of other smallers ones that caused alot of damage, it was a tornado outbreak. There were Tornado Warnings until 2:30am at least that i can remember, i couldn't stay awake much longer after that. and now today is a major event.

But one thing i have noticed, we get wind that we may have a major tornado outbreak and then nothing really happens at all.. like Saturday. So i don't think people expected yesterday to be so bad. So many times this year storm chasers and meteorologist have gotten worked up over days with potential and nothing comes of them, then people don't stay as weather aware as they should. In my opinion, i do believe that storm chasers and meteorologist tend to beef up the forecast and make a huge deal. Then when days like today and yesterday happen, everyone just assumes they are beefing up the forecast and lives get lost..

But in my opinion, yesterday was by no means a bullet dodged, Arkansas got slammed all night by tornado.

 

[rdale]

I saw very few respectable meteorologists hyping anything about Saturday. Even if so, are you implying that people in Mississippi today may have ignored warnings because of it?

 

[Karen Politte]

Another item. I noticed on the big Arkansas tornado, in an early tornado warning there, a "tornado emergency" was issued for Maumelle. I thought that was odd since, out of the 12 or 14 towns in the path, Maumelle was pretty far to the right of the projected path. Couldn't understand why they chose Maumelle only for an emergency. On the preliminary storm reports page, it is Roland that was first hit (in chronological order.) Then the storm went on its tear through Mayflower and points northeast. Looks like Roland is about 5 miles from Maumelle. Sounds like I'm nitpicking a little, but I thought tornado emergencies were supposed to be reserved for a very clear situation in which there is virtually no doubt as to the place of impact. In this case, being 5 miles off is pretty significant. Unless Maumelle was actually hit but for some reason doesn't show up on the storm reports page, was this in effect a false alarm for one town, but a failure to detect for another?

Not quite sure what you mean here, because a Tornado Emergency was issued for the cities of Mayflower and Vilonia:


http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLZK/1404280029.wfus54.html

And later, for El Paso and Floyd:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLZK/1404280056.wfus54.html

In addition, I cannot find anywhere the Tornado Emergency warning for Maumelle - and I would have been surprised if there had been one, because the storm was clearly going to miss that city.

KP

 

[rdale]

ARC045-105-119-125-280030-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140428T0030Z/
FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
714 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAUMELLE...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL SALINE...
WEST CENTRAL PULASKI...EAST CENTRAL PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 710 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAUMELLE!. TAKE COVER NOW.

ARC045-105-119-280030-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140428T0030Z/
FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-
720 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAUMELLE AND MORGAN...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL PULASKI...EAST
CENTRAL PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 715 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
LAKE MAUMELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAUMELLE AND MORGAN. TAKE COVER NOW.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
MAUMELLE... LAKE MAUMELLE... ROLAND...
PINNACLE MTN... MORGAN... MAYFLOWER...
MARCHE... LITTLE ITALY... PALARM...
NATURAL STEPS... FERNDALE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 133 AND 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A DAMAGING TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. THIS IS AN
EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LIFE
THREATENING...CONFIRMED TORNADO CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION.
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

 

[Ashley]

Not the day of, but days leading up there was alot of hype. Wasnt implying anything abouy the people of Mississippi today. They knew what was coming because of yesterday's events. It was just my opinion that alot of the meteorologist and storm chasers get hyped up over alot of flop days. Just my opinion from what I have observed.

 

[rdale]

Stop following those people

 

[Kat_H]

I saw very few respectable meteorologists hyping anything about Saturday.

The meteorologists themselves weren't - but at least one media outlet was. The following was posted on Thursday on MSN from The Wire:
http://news.msn.com/us/forecasters-...rnado-outbreak-this-weekend-1?ocid=newssocial

So first there's the "predicting a massive outbreak this weekend" headline. Then, the graphic shows "instability" for Saturday. Without the accompanying dialogue, I can't tell if the article's screencap from the weather channel was a forecast for severe T-storms (I found similar maps later - TWC has a TS forecast that looks a lot like a convective outlook, but isn't) or if that was supposed to be a convective outlook, or even what day that graphic was generated. The article says "Saturday through Monday," and in the next sentence says Sunday and Monday.

A friend of mine posted this to facebook. I wrote a long comment about how Saturday was looking like a bust in terms of large tornados, that the computer models aren't 100% certain and anything more than a day out could change, how the article was vague, and that everyone is better off getting their weather from an actual weather source. There are three indicators in that article that Saturday would see some kind of outbreak. Who knows how many other people used that article as their only source of knowledge for the weekend, and then blew off Sunday because Saturday didn't pan out?

 

[David Williams]

So I was anticipating storms to fire off the dryline in eastern Oklahoma. My chase partner and I waited forever for the dryline to make its way east. Then, some things happened that I don't entirely understand, and I was hoping to get some clarification on:

1. The dryline was moving (I think) slower than anticipated across OK. I thought it was going to be the firing mechanism for storms that developed on far eastern OK and pushed into AR. Why was the dryline moving so slow? Now my guess is that it ran into so much deep moisture with such a stout cap that it was having difficulty making progress; however, I haven't been able to find soundings from yesterday to see if the moisture was reaching 5000 ft. (Interestingly enough, I learned about drylines being slowed by deep moisture from Tim Vs article "Dryline Magic" that I read on Saturday).

2. The first storm to fire off the dryline and track into OK was way south on the on the TX border near Sherman. This guy started looking all big and bad, but after a while I noticed that he had halted the dryline, decoupling himself from it and moving away NE. So, why did he stop the dryline? And, why did he and the small severe storm to the north die out once they left the dryline?

3. As the dryling tracked closer, I was watching towers go up and die all over the place. Was this due to the strength of the cap? Storms being sheared off? The slow momentum of the dryling? Or, another reason?

4. The only place where the dryline kept advancing was over northern OK. Hark! Two cells are produced here, both go severe quickly, and one produces the Quapaw and Baxter tornadoes. So, were these storm able to go severe quickly and produce the tornadoes because they were anchored on the dryline?

5. If the dryline did make it into AR, would we have seen some other crazy storms/tornadoes especially in the HIGH Risk area?

Thanks for any feedback!

 

[rdale]

The meteorologists themselves weren't - but at least one media outlet was.

I'm very aware

Who knows how many other people used that article as their only source of knowledge for the weekend, and then blew off Sunday because Saturday didn't pan out?

Probably none. Very few in the public use convective outlooks in any way shape or form. I highly doubt that with the skies turning dark, thunder rolling in, and the TV weatherman showing a livestreamed tornado on the screen would anyone say "Well they said yesterday would be big and it wasn't, so I'm going to ignore this."

 

[Ashley]

There are three indicators in that article that Saturday would see some kind of outbreak. Who knows how many other people used that article as their only source of knowledge for the weekend, and then blew off Sunday because Saturday didn't pan out?

This is exactly what im talkin about. This storm system was presented in a major 3 day event. When day 1 didnt pan out, I think alot of people blew off Sunday and just didnt watch the weather as closely. I mean tornado warninga didnt really get going till 4:30? 5:00?

 

[Ashley]

I highly doubt that with the skies turning dark, thunder rolling in, and the TV weatherman showing a livestreamed tornado on the screen would anyone say "Well they said yesterday would be big and it wasn't, so I'm going to ignore this."

Thats the problem, people in Quapaw and Baxter Springs didn't have any warning.

 

[rdale]

But that had nothing to do with outlooks or hype, so I'm still not sure what's being claimed

 

[Ashley]

It's just my opinion that sometimes, some meteorologist and storm chasers make a huge deal about whats to come, then about 12hrs before, they go "oh nope. never mind." Thats the case with Saturday. It was suppose to be Day 1, but come Friday afternoon, everyone was backing off that Saturday was going to be anything.

It's like i was explaining to someone yesterday, im working on a degree in Psychology:

People hear the weather reports, and as this system was presented to the public, it was to be a major 3 day event. It's like story, if something in the story is shown to not be true, people wont find the rest of the story to be as creditable. They wont take it as seriously. So when this system was presented to the public, it was presented as a full blown 3 day system. the people didn't look at the potential for each individual day, they looked at all 3 days together. So when Saturday turned out it wasn't to be anything, people I feel, in MY opinion, may have not thought Sunday to be anything either and possibly just kinda didn't take Sunday as seriously, maybe didn't pay attention to the weather as closely as they would have if Saturday had panned out like it was originally suppose to. The NWS was even predicting Saturday to be something, then Friday, they backed off saying latest runs show that it doesn't look to be anything. These are just my observations, I think Sundays outcome took a lot of people off guard due to Saturday being a bust. And Sunday it took a while for storms to get going, so i think by 3pm when nothing had happen yet, people may have calmed down. And i'm not talking about all of Arkansas or every single person involved in Sundays storms, a lot of people did pay attention, but a lot didn't cause when Saturday wasn't anything, so they said screw it. And for months now, people that sit at desks and write news articles all day have been preaching how this year has been quiet and starting off slower then normal, that's true. But i think some people get comfortable in that fact and maybe don't take days like Sunday as seriously, cause its been a "quiet year". I'm not attacking anyone saying they were wrong and should be slapped on the hands, just stating my observations, and alot of the people i follow, are followed by thousands of people also. They aren't bad meteorologists and storm chasers, they just got excited about Saturday and the whole event. I'm not saying my observation is right or wrong, its seriously just my opinion. Not asking you or anyone else to agree with me. Opinions are just that, opinions.

 

[rdale]

It's just my opinion that sometimes, some meteorologist and storm chasers make a huge deal about whats to come, then about 12hrs before, they go "oh nope. never mind."

They sure do. But that's why you don't listen to them if they continually do it.

everyone was backing off that Saturday was going to be anything.

Many people never said it was going to be something to begin with, so no backing off was needed

It's like story, if something in the story is shown to not be true, people wont find the rest of the story to be as creditable.

I think you mean credible? In any case, I know of no connection between multi-day severe weather events and public response.

So when Saturday turned out it wasn't to be anything, people I feel, in MY opinion, may have not thought Sunday to be anything either and possibly just kinda didn't take Sunday as seriously

I think what you're confusing is that these are all completely separate parts of the country. I have absolutely no belief that people in Arkansas ignored the threat because there wasn't an outbreak 500 miles away the day before. I've never heard of anyone in my area saying "Well the forecast yesterday for St Louis busted, so I'm not going to believe we'll get severe weather in Michigan today."

The NWS was even predicting Saturday to be something, then Friday, they backed off saying latest runs show that it doesn't look to be anything.

Correct, that's how long term forecasts work. Nobody in their right mind would wake up today, look at the forecast for their Sunday picnic, and never check the weather again until Sunday morning. Does it mean they throw out all forecasts? I don't believe so (nor have I seen evidence of.)

But i think some people get comfortable in that fact and maybe don't take days like Sunday as seriously, cause its been a "quiet year".

Again I love opinions, but you'll find out when you start working on your degree that you have to have evidence when making claims I suggest there is no evidence therefore these claims are not valid. I've read a lot of the news coverage and I have yet to hear ANYONE say "We didn't take the tornado warnings in Birmingham seriously last night because Oklahoma didn't have an outbreak three days ago."

 

[Ashley]

They sure do. But that's why you don't listen to them if they continually do it.



Many people never said it was going to be something to begin with, so no backing off was needed



I think you mean credible? In any case, I know of no connection between multi-day severe weather events and public response.



I think what you're confusing is that these are all completely separate parts of the country. I have absolutely no belief that people in Arkansas ignored the threat because there wasn't an outbreak 500 miles away the day before. I've never heard of anyone in my area saying "Well the forecast yesterday for St Louis busted, so I'm not going to believe we'll get severe weather in Michigan today."



Correct, that's how long term forecasts work. Nobody in their right mind would wake up today, look at the forecast for their Sunday picnic, and never check the weather again until Sunday morning. Does it mean they throw out all forecasts? I don't believe so (nor have I seen evidence of.)



Again I love opinions, but you'll find out when you start working on your degree that you have to have evidence when making claims I suggest there is no evidence therefore these claims are not valid. I've read a lot of the news coverage and I have yet to hear ANYONE say "We didn't take the tornado warnings in Birmingham seriously last night because Oklahoma didn't have an outbreak three days ago."

I'm just going to stop beating a dead horse with this, you aren't getting what I'm saying, obviously.
This is why i love people, when they don't agree with an opinion, they have to beat the other person to death to tell them why their opinion is so wrong.

Oh, opinions, you don't need evidence to have them.. that would be called a hypotheses. Two very different things, anyone who's taken any type of Science class and has had to understand the steps of a scientific experiment will agree with this.

o·pin·ion
əˈpinyən/Submit
noun
1.
a view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.
"I'm writing to voice my opinion on an issue of great importance"
synonyms: belief, judgment, thought(s), (way of) thinking, mind, (point of) view, viewpoint, outlook, attitude, stance, position, perspective, persuasion, standpoint;


hy·poth·e·sis
hīˈpäTHəsis/Submit
noun
1.
a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation.
"professional astronomers attacked him for popularizing an unconfirmed hypothesis"
synonyms: theory, theorem, thesis, conjecture, supposition, postulation, postulate, proposition, premise, assumption