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2014-04-27 MISC: AR, KS, MO, OK

You can have an OPINION that 2+2 = 3. However, as you're learning quickly here, OPINIONS mean nothing if you're trying to convince others. You need backing. If you have an OPINION that minimum wage should be $2/hour and that people will be happier, it means nothing. You would have to show some sort of evidence to give that opinion any weight.

So you can have your OPINION that people let their guard down because Saturday's event didn't pan out. I showed you factually-based examples of why that opinion is wrong. I am getting what you're saying. I'm just saying you're wrong based on evidence, and if you would like your opinion to have merit you need to come up with some basis.
 
rdale said:
You can have an OPINION that 2+2 = 3. However, as you're learning quickly here, OPINIONS mean nothing if you're trying to convince others. You need backing. If you have an OPINION that minimum wage should be $2/hour and that people will be happier, it means nothing. You would have to show some sort of evidence to give that opinion any weight.

So you can have your OPINION that people let their guard down because Saturday's event didn't pan out. I showed you factually-based examples of why that opinion is wrong. I am getting what you're saying. I'm just saying you're wrong based on evidence, and if you would like your opinion to have merit you need to come up with some basis.
Click to expand...

Funny, i dont remember trying to convince others? So your whole theory on my opinion is completely debunked. I dont care if you, or anyone else in the world agreed with it, it's my opinion and I agree with my opinion. Good for me. Opinions can not be wrong or right actually. Maybe you should read up on what an opinion is before trying to tell someone what they are.. you know, give your statement some merit. (;
 
Remember I'm in this field to save lives... We have a lot to learn from social science study, I'm glad there are people in those fields who like facts ;)
 
haha, please. Save it. I'm in nursing and we work based on facts, but we are allowed to have opinions (; Never once have I made a single move based on my opinion, that gets people killed. (;
 
Mike Johnston said:
I noted in a couple of SPC's discussions yesterday there was some talk of a westward-propogating gravity wave. Not much detail, and I certainly couldn't analyze one myself. However, there were several tornadoes that seemed to occur very suddenly - in Quapaw, OK (2 deaths), Baxter Springs, KS (25 injuries and ~80 structures damaged), and just north of Ft. Scott, KS. Also some reports of tornadoes sited near Nevada, MO, and Galena, KS. These all seemed to pop at approximately the same time. I think the Springfield WFO had around 6 warnings issued within a few minutes of each other in this area. The cold front was still off to the west, so I do wonder about the quick initiation of such violent storms and what the trigger was. Perhaps just convective temperatures were reached, but could a gravity wave have been involved? Did anyone else notice this?[/QUOTE/)

I believe it was HCR's (Horizontal Convective Rolls). You could plainly see them erupt right along them. Of course the nose of the jet entering about the same time also played the part.
Click to expand...
 
rdale said:
ARC045-105-119-125-280030-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140428T0030Z/
FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
714 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MAUMELLE...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL SALINE...
WEST CENTRAL PULASKI...EAST CENTRAL PERRY AND SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

>SNIP<

&&
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Huh, interesting. I couldn't see that on COD's history of the warnings. Oh well - the OP's point about there never having been issued a tornado emergency for Mayflower and Vilonia is still incorrect.

I do find it interesting that there was an emergency issued to Maumelle. Wonder what their thinking was? The storm was clearly going to miss the city......perhaps they saw one or two scans where it pushed east a bit faster than they had thought or something. >Shrugs<
 
Karen Politte said:
Huh, interesting. I couldn't see that on COD's history of the warnings. Oh well - the OP's point about there never having been issued a tornado emergency for Mayflower and Vilonia is still incorrect.

I do find it interesting that there was an emergency issued to Maumelle. Wonder what their thinking was? The storm was clearly going to miss the city......perhaps they saw one or two scans where it pushed east a bit faster than they had thought or something. >Shrugs<
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Karen, no I did not say that Mayflower or Vilonia never received a tornado emergency. I was talking about Roland - a tornado being reported there and not Maumelle, yet Maumelle was the only town singled out in that initial warning for an emergency in the initial warning, yet the tornado from that storm came to Roland which is about 5 miles away (not downstream or upstream, but basically perpendicular to the storm's path.)

I know there were plenty of more warnings downstream, and some more tornado emergencies.
 
I was suspicious about Saturday because some AFD's were not all that optimistic several days out. I assume they picked up on the lagging dynamics and poor RH return quite early, especially those offices to the west who know their climatology and a sharply digging trough often slows down. I took a chance and nixed the deployment on Thursday, but was still a little concerned it might go nuts. Skip did an excellent job of calling this event in his Friday? post and the NAM proved correct. As for gravity waves, if someone has a good satellite loop of the event you might be able to pick them up on the cloud / anvil tops as ripples.

W.
 
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/27/2014 TORNADO EVENT...UPDATE #1...

.TORNADO #1...THE MAYFLOWER/VILONIA/EL PASO TORNADO...

RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 180-190 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 41.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1320 YARDS
FATALITIES: 15
INJURIES: UNKNOWN

START DATE: APR 27 2014
START TIME: 706 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 5.4 W FERNDALE /PULASKI COUNTY/
START LAT/LON: 34.7787 / -92.6520

END DATE: APR 27 2014
END TIME: 806 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 1.4 NE EL PASO /WHITE COUNTY/
END_LAT/LON: 34.1415 / -92.0787
 
Well, I've been living in Oklahoma all my life and in Norman since 2009 and I am astounded by how many people seem to not give one thought to the weather at all.
 
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