James Gustina
Supporter
This setup popped up about three days ago with a neutral/slightly negative ejecting out of Arizona/New Mexico Thursday afternoon. The biggest problem with this setup lies in the quality of boundary layer moisture and with the gulf being as devoid of quality moisture as it is, its all going to hinge on day of moisture return. The one plus with this is that the wind profiles in western Kansas/panhandles are absolutely gorgeous. The 12z NAM was putting backed surface winds along the "dryline" in the central TX panhandle up to almost Goodland where the surface cyclone is located as well as almost due SE H85s aoa 40 knots by 00Z. That same run only has dewpoints in the mid 40s progged for western Kansas and mid 50s in the TX panhandle by 00Z though which is definitely cause for concern. The thermodynamic environment is also pretty iffy on the NAM as a result of the anemic moisture return and the low sfc temps in the late afternoon.
I'd be more inclined to watch this closely if moisture was likely to get that far north and it didn't fall on the Thursday before OU/Texas, but as of now I'm less than impressed.
I'd be more inclined to watch this closely if moisture was likely to get that far north and it didn't fall on the Thursday before OU/Texas, but as of now I'm less than impressed.