2013-06-15 FCST: CO

[Adam Adkins]

Things seem to be taking shape for a typical late-spring northeast Colorado setup. A surface low deepens over the high plains while a cold front will drop through Colorado bringing moisture and more upper level cooling. There is a little concern about CIN but looks probable that it will sufficiently erode by 00z. 2000-3000 ML CAPE with 40-50 kts deep layer shear and surface dewpoints approaching 60 degrees should be just fine for supercells with low enough bases. Tornadoes are a real possibility as well in the afternoon with favorable shear. Large hail and winds, obviously. Seems to be taking shape!

 

[Adam Adkins]

Models continue to be consistent. Forecast sfc dpts in eastern CO show about 60 degrees with 70s surface temperatures. Good shear and moderate CAPE will be favorable for supercells with large hail and tornadoes. A good starting point appears to be just east of the Denver area to see what develops.

 

[JanelleHelling]

NAM seems to be showing the cold front a couple of counties farther south than the NFC this morning and there’s an impressive double looped hodograph from the 7 a.m. soundings (my location). However, morning soundings also show significant CIN, e CO, which likely won’t break until late afternoon. With the triple point already south of here, and dewpoints 15 higher in Limon and Akron, I agree with earlier post staging east of Denver.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

If I were chasing today (which I'm not) I'd probably stage in Limon and wait for storms to fire around 4-5pm this afternoon. It looks like forcing will be fairly weak today but that's why CO is famous for the Palmer Divide, which will serve as a localized forcing mechanism in the upslope regime. I expect to see a nice supercell on radar rolling through eastern CO near I-70 before it all gets linear/clustered. All the high-res models seem to break precip and keep it nice and isolated for a few hours through the evening. One thing I have noticed is the HRRR has consistently broke out a supercell in Goshen county, WY and rolling it SE along the NE/CO border. This appears to be on the nose of good 60° dewpoints and upslope 850mb winds. Even though its barely, if at all, in the SLIGHT risk area, if that storm fires it could also produce nicely. Overall not a bad looking day for those in the area. I myself am only going to be limited with the stuff locally that might roll through tonight. Good luck everyone.