2012-06-09 FCST: MB/ND/MN

[jaredmysko]

Models have pointed to this day for the past week as a possible busy day for severe weather in southern Manitoba Canada. More chasers than I have ever seen are making plans to chase beginning early this morning in south east Saskatchewan with plans to follow a steep temperature gradient towards Winnipeg by evening. North Dakota should see the first storms fire up and head north into Canada. Conditions seem to point to a strong tornado developing in the same general area as the 2006 Ellie F5 tornado event around 5pm local time. There will be some chasers streaming live this event and links to the group here including live tweets can be found on my blog http://www.canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com Thanks and Stay Safe!

Jared

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Given the steep low-level lapse rates and instability, I think there’s a pretty good chance the CAP will break late this afternoon, initiating storms in northeast ND, perhaps around the Hwy 281 corridor. The southerly low-level flow in ND will keep the tornado threat very low, if not non-existent. However, low-level winds start to back substantially in south-central Manitoba, where there is a much better chance of a tornado or two.

We are currently targeting Rock Lake, ND. However, I’d like to venture into Manitoba, but am unsure about how we’ll get data and radar coverage once leaving the country. I can only imagine how expensive the roaming charges would be on Verizon or AT&T. (We are currently running both.) The KMBX radar covers a small portion of Manitoba, but ideally, I’d like to find a decent radar solution after crossing the border. Lots of time to research while driving to our target area today.

Getting back on track with the forecast, I think it will also be important to see how today’s earlier convection may affect surface-based storms that fire later today. We all know how OFBs can change the environmental dynamics. Definitely worth keeping an eye on things as the day progresses.

Bryan

 

[Skip Talbot]

The cold pool from the morning convection moving across southern Canada looks like it's reinforcing and suppressing the northward progression of the warm front. The Rapid had it surging across the border by now, but it's actually stalled across central North Dakota at the moment. I imagine that it will start to lift north soon as that cold pool weakens, but the discrepancy between where that boundary was supposed to be and where it actually is may result in a southward shift in tonight's warm front target closer to the border than further up into Manitoba as it was plotted earlier.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Another thing is the Td's. I noticed the RAP was progging Td's too low a couple days ago, and it did it again this morning. Look at the 12Z run for +7 (19Z) and you have a whole bunch of sub-60 Td's in E ND. They aren't there. There's no (NWS) Td ob <61 E of 83. That moisture ridge runs right down well into SD, too.

P.S. I've been hanging out in Rugby all morning, where I've been since Thursday.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Skip, you're right. We're driving north on Hwy 281 and we're currently about 5 miles south of Devil's Lake. Over the last 5 minutes, the temperature dropped 7 degrees. Looks like the warm front is in the vicinity of Devil's Lake as of 1445 CDT.

Bryan

 

[Bryan Stokes]

The CAP finally broke. Initiation underway just south of Cavalier, ND. SFC winds are currently out of the E/NE, which makes for nice backing.

Bryan