2011 Kick off party...

[Mike Moore]

It's that time again... time to start the cooker.

The little MCS heading down to visit from NC is kind of cute... too bad it's not bringing more rain.

 

[Jason Moreland]

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

 

[TJKLECKNER]

Oh, I'm sure its going to be crazy and nuts like it was last year.....Remember the 16 huge storms last year

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, are calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."

Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, and therefore a threat to land.

 

[Jeff Duda]

In the last few years I've begun to find the idea of June 1st being the start of the hurricane season humorous. Hurricanes are the only meteorological entity that have a season with a set start and end date. Why? Everyone knows that hurricanes can and will form in the north Atlantic outside of the June 1st - November 30th time frame. TWC always gets really excited around this time, which is understandable. But the fact that it's because it's June 1st seems to be more of the reason rather than because the climatological probability of a hurricane forming in an area that could affect the US begins to be large enough to not have to use scientific notation. Why isn't there an official start and end date to the 2011 tornado season or the earthquake season or the flooding season or the MCS season (which I propose would be about May 20th - July 31st )?

 

[Kevin Walters]

In the last few years I've begun to find the idea of June 1st being the start of the hurricane season humorous. Hurricanes are the only meteorological entity that have a season with a set start and end date. Why? Everyone knows that hurricanes can and will form in the north Atlantic outside of the June 1st - November 30th time frame. TWC always gets really excited around this time, which is understandable. But the fact that it's because it's June 1st seems to be more of the reason rather than because the climatological probability of a hurricane forming in an area that could affect the US begins to be large enough to not have to use scientific notation. Why isn't there an official start and end date to the 2011 tornado season or the earthquake season or the flooding season or the MCS season (which I propose would be about May 20th - July 31st )?

While I only check out TWC once in a while these days, I officially stop watching all together on June 1st. The endless Tropical Updates are more than I can deal with.

 

[Joe Zagrodnik]

I think it is good to have a hurricane "season" even if it is possible for a storm to form outside the window. Here in FL today the news is full of info about getting ready for the season, buying supplies, making evacuation plans, etc. June 1 is an important day for public awareness--much more so than "severe weather awareness week" and other government-sponsored public information periods.

It is also needed as part of the yearly timeline for the NHC. The "offseason" is spent studying the previous year and preparing new models/products for operational use in the next year. It allows the meteorologists a period of 6 months where they do not have to put out official forecasts multiple times per day like they do during the season. If a threat does develop, then they can suspend their analysis and issue products.

As for this season, it appears that conditions will be above-normal yet again. The action may be more concentrated toward the first 1/2 of the season as opposed to last year when most of the activity was in Sept/Oct. The strength of the developing El Nino will be the determining factor for storm formation. SSTs remain above normal.

Will be interesting to see if that MCV redevelops in the eastern Gulf--that is a climatologically favorable area for June.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I think it is good to have a hurricane "season" even if it is possible for a storm to form outside the window. Here in FL today the news is full of info about getting ready for the season, buying supplies, making evacuation plans, etc. June 1 is an important day for public awareness--much more so than "severe weather awareness week" and other government-sponsored public information periods.

It is also needed as part of the yearly timeline for the NHC. The "offseason" is spent studying the previous year and preparing new models/products for operational use in the next year. It allows the meteorologists a period of 6 months where they do not have to put out official forecasts multiple times per day like they do during the season. If a threat does develop, then they can suspend their analysis and issue products.

I think just about every state in the US has a "severe weather awareness week" sometime in the early spring. But there is no official start to the severe weather season. So why June 1st? Why not May 21st...June 3rd etc?

ADD: I can clearly tell by the way tropical weather forecasters act that they are well aware that the season has fuzzy start and end dates (they'll consider storms even if they form outside of the time frame). So I don't think there's anything majorly wrong with it. I just find it funny that set-in-stone start and end dates are still used. It's the same issue as when severe weather warning text still mentions specific counties despite being in the age of storm based warnings.

Will be interesting to see if that MCV redevelops in the eastern Gulf--that is a climatologically favorable area for June.

I saw that last night when taking an innocent look at IR satellite and was surprised to see it there. Quite a tight little system and just by looking at satellite it appeared to have good anticyclonic flaring of the cirrus clouds suggesting minimal shear to inhibit development.

 

[Mike Moore]

If there wasn't a season for tropical system, news outlets wouldn't have a set date to start using new graphic packages and new corny terms.

Now your 5pm news, featuring our weather-con Dual Pulse Doppler Debris-ball Detector 9000.

Ahh well... it's just something to make the time go by. First Lovebug season, then hurricane season, then Lovebug season again...

 

[Ed Boik]

And it appears the season will get off to a quick start. The models are calling for a T.D. south of Cuba. If the GFS is the be believed, a T.S. in a week.